Many people are responding to Govt action on Covid-19 as if the science behind the virus is clear & settled. Nation’s policies are being informed by national models developed by experts in each nation. This model will be fed certain assumptions & projections are produced to guide

That is why in d USA, their modelling states about 3-5Million people could die if nothing is done; but with the actions being taken, about 200k will still die. In the UK, a different modelling system is being used led by a Prof at Imperial College. It says up to 500k will die...

...if nothing is done, but with partial lockdown, that could be 150k, while total lockdown with other measures will bring d death down to about 20k. All these were announced by Govt openly. So my questions are as follows;

1. What Modelling is informing actions of Nigerian Govt?

2. Who are the experts on the modelling Panel?

3. What are the death projections for doing Nothing, Patial lockdown & Total lockdown based on the modelling?

4. What action is Govt taking NOW to safe jobs in Nigeria? Promise of support after Covid will not safe jobs today.

5. What impact on spread, & fatalities will widespread use of masks, massive testing regime & detailed contact tracing have?

6. What is d minimum level of testing we need to have to flatten d curve based on the modelling?

7. Why are frontline staff not being tested as a policy

Covid-19 is an uncertain beast as WHO confirms. There are still a lot of Unknown Unknowns & Known unknowns so to speak. Govt actions has to be based on a set of assumptions fed into models that reflect national peculiarities. Why have Govt not published all these like others have

Public confidence is based on openness & transparency. If u want folks to endure hardship, they want to know u know what u are doing first. So when d science or model changes, we will all understand why Govt policies have to change too. But secrecy make policy look like guesswork

There are no easy decision for any Govt. So I sympathise. But the Govt have to demonstrate that the pain imposed on citizens is based on robust domesticated evidence (shared openly) based on best practice rather than simple guesses and hunches. Trust must be built.

My concern is I do not yet see evidence of modelling informed strategic response in the actions of Govt. But I may be wrong, in which case they can publish the data and assumptions for Nigerians to see. There are few things fully certain about Covid as more is discovered daily.

We should make our choice of action be informed by facts & not fear. Yes total lockdown may most likely work; but so could other less drastic options too as different Nations have proven. What is the point of paying N500Million for a house when other got same house for N50Million

We need to find the least damaging options even though all options have pain for citizens and nation. So openness, and evidence of science-based policy making that is bespoke to Nigeria will enable more Nigerians to support this current course of action by Govt.

As for palliatives, d FG cannot simply use their cash transfer scheme to determine who is Covid poor. There are lots more. With an estimated 70Million poor, paying 3.6m folks is inadequate. Help also should be focused more on total-lockdown states & not based on federal character

I know many in Govt are trying their best. But working hard is not same as working smart. Covid is an evolving beast and policies will change as more is known. We should avoid prematurely damaging our economy and social fabric simply out of fear of the unknown.