If you have a disease that doubles in spread every three days...

... but you have a strong way to halt transmission...

... then starting those strong measures just *three days earlier* will reduce the number of victims by 50%.

We should have done more. I can’t get over it. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821828891250688

To be clear

a) the above is a theoretical model, reality will be more complex — although as you can see from the chart, the model is a reasonable one

b) politicians deal in uncertainty; they try to do the right thing; and everyone makes mistakes.

But still