Before I share my predictions on @Quibi let’s start with a poll...

Have you downloaded Quibi yet?

[THREAD 1/N]

If you answered "yes," do you plan to keep subscribing to @Quibi after your 90-day free trial expires?
[2/N]

My prediction in 2019 was simple: Despite a $2Billion valuation @Quibi would launch with a relatively low level of downloads, & would ultimately be quickly forgotten on the heels of a product that fits no one.

Here I am in Singapore on stage at @Promax_Global in November. [3/N]

But November wasn't my first public prediction. Here I am in Los Angeles in June 2019...

So how did we know all of this a year in advance?
[4/N]

The short answer is that we aren't much for telling audiences what they want, but we are really great at observing their reactions to content & predicting future behavior. [5/N]

So what do audiences want?

Long-form paywalled content that is watchable on ANY device, highly addictive & relevant

OR

Short-form meme-style FREE content that doesn't look mother-approved

OR

Long-form free vlog-style FREE content that also doesn't look mother-approved
[6/N]

So what did  @Quibi produce?

Slow-paced, short-form content with a limited library behind a paywall that nobody can post socially...
[7/N]

And no, @Quibi audiences do not care about the ability to swap between horizontal & vertical viewing.

Maybe execs care.
Maybe engineers care.
Maybe the sales team cares that their ads will always be fullscreen...

But this is truly one of the most unneeded features ever.
[8/N]

What do people care about?

BEING DELIGHTED!

And after watching part, or all, of everything @Quibi has to offer I just don't see anyone being delighted to pay $4.99-7.99 per month to watch shows that IMO would have mostly been canceled by cable TV networks.
[9/N]

I do not expect @Quibi to be fully transparent on their traction (most flops don't like to acknowledge being a flop).

So how can we observe the traction of a private company's app launch in a world where they have no reason to share those details with us?
[10/N]

For @Quibi & similar consumer content apps I typically go to two sources for research.

One is quantitative (Apple app store rankings) & one is qualitative & often brain-cancer inducing (if you guessed Twitter, you are correct)
[11/N]

The iOS App store publishes app rankings updated daily, and the "free" app rankings are invaluable as they give a snapshot of a single day & time; however, they also can be tethered together to give a behind-the-scenes trajectory of an app's traction.
[12/N]

Typically with a major content app, combined with a free offering (90 days in @Quibi's case) you would expect any new app to easily clear the Top-5, and stay there for multiple weeks.

But that expectation is based on apps that have some level of product-market fit.
[13/N]

. @Quibi never made it into the Top-5 & has dropped at a fast pace since debuting at #6.

#6 on April 8th
#23 on April 9th
#34 on April 10th
#38 on April 13th (today)
[14/N]

Apps currently ranked ahead of @Quibi on the app store:

#32 SHEIN - Fashion Shopping App
#25 News Break: Local News App
#19 PREQUEL: 3D Photo Filters App

If you're looking for an app that might actually have traction...

#2 Houseparty (owned by Fortnite maker Epic Games)
[15/N]

My 2nd (and favorite) source of app/content traction is Twitter because once you learn how to filter out shill accounts (which we specialize in spotting) you are left with a scalable & surprisingly honest focus group.
[16/N]

And what type of tweets will you find about @Quibi?

1) Promotional tweets from Quibi & the producers/actors of Quibi shows...

2) People asking what Quibi is...

3) Shill accounts saying that they are thrilled Punk'd is now available on their mobile phone
[17/N]

Ok, Darwyn. We get it. Nobody is downloading it. Nobody is talking about it. So is it all just bad news?

Almost...
[18/N]

The optimistic story for @Quibi starts and stops with @MegWhitman who somehow managed to pre-sell 1-year worth of advertising (unbelievable, but true) & she's just told @CNBC that @Quibi has been downloaded 1.7 million times, so at least SOME of those ads will be consumed.
[19/N]

So what now?

I believe @Quibi has smart people who will look at their user data (which is far better than I have provided) & once they come to the same conclusion (that the app, the content & the price point are a perfect storm for a flop) they will begin to pivot.
[20/N]

. @Quibi can start with the easy fixes, like making content watchable on ANY device and ending the prohibition of social sharing by allowing (and encouraging) screen captures of content.

This photo is what it looks like if you try to screengrab content now:
[21/N]

. @Quibi should also look to halt all marketing activities until they find product-market fit.

They don't need any further evidence of traction, they simply don't have it & they won't be able to spend marketing dollars to get it.
[22/N]

Ideally, @Quibi would license their content to another platform, or simply sell their library (likely at a massive loss) to a content platform that could leverage these shows as a value-add (think @Spotify or @AppleMusic).

They should NOT look to raise more money.
[23/N]

Money was never the issue...

@Quibi raised over $750 million

Prestige was never the issue...

@Quibi's exec team are impressive & well connected
[24/N]

. @Quibi built its identity on being the proverbial "smartest person in the room" & it appears they focused so much on telling the American public what they should want that they never observed what they actually did want.

And charging $7.99 per month didn't help.
[25/25]