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Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. As always, models are fed new info as it comes in to recalibrate its predictions. Let& #39;s see what has changed since its last update on Friday.
Overall US:
# of total deaths increased from 61,545 deaths to 68,841 now
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 12,697 to 3,948.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/11 to 4/10, peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/13(today)
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/21 to 5/27
# of total deaths increased from 61,545 deaths to 68,841 now
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 12,697 to 3,948.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/11 to 4/10, peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/13(today)
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/21 to 5/27
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital use remained at 4/8. Peak daily death toll went from 4/9 to 4/10.
-Total deaths now projected to be 14,542 instead of 13,463
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29
-Peak hospital use remained at 4/8. Peak daily death toll went from 4/9 to 4/10.
-Total deaths now projected to be 14,542 instead of 13,463
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29
State: FL
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 5/3 instead of 4/26
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 5/6 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths now projected to be 4,748 instead of 3,999
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 6/1 instead of of 5/23.
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 5/3 instead of 4/26
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 5/6 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths now projected to be 4,748 instead of 3,999
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 6/1 instead of of 5/23.
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/9 instead of 4/8
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update)
-Total deaths projected went from 3,915 to 4,407
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/9 instead of 4/8
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update)
-Total deaths projected went from 3,915 to 4,407
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
State: MI
-Peak hospital use is projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/7
-Peak daily death toll projected is estimated to taken place on 4/10 instead of 4/7
-Total deaths projected went from 1,977 to 2,373
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/24
-Peak hospital use is projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/7
-Peak daily death toll projected is estimated to taken place on 4/10 instead of 4/7
-Total deaths projected went from 1,977 to 2,373
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/24
State: TX
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/26.
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/30 instead of 4/28.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,350 to 2,704
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/26 instead of 5/21.
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/26.
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/30 instead of 4/28.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,350 to 2,704
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/26 instead of 5/21.
State: Va
-Peak hospital use now projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths projected went from 830 to 1,188
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/14 instead of 5/5
-Peak hospital use now projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths projected went from 830 to 1,188
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/14 instead of 5/5
State: IL
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/3. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 777 to 1,248
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/17
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/3. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 777 to 1,248
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/17
State: GA
-Peak hospital use on 5/1 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll on 5/2 instead of 4/27.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,564 to 3,718
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/29 instead of 5/25
-Peak hospital use on 5/1 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll on 5/2 instead of 4/27.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,564 to 3,718
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/29 instead of 5/25
State: LA
-Peak hospital use was on 4/6 instead of 4/4. Peak daily death toll projected was 4/8 (same as last time).
-Total deaths projected went from 1,125 to 1,141.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 (same as last time).
-Peak hospital use was on 4/6 instead of 4/4. Peak daily death toll projected was 4/8 (same as last time).
-Total deaths projected went from 1,125 to 1,141.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 (same as last time).
State: CA
-Peak hospital use went from 4/13 to 4/17, and peak daily death toll went from 4/15 to 4/19.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,616 to 1,483.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29.
-Peak hospital use went from 4/13 to 4/17, and peak daily death toll went from 4/15 to 4/19.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,616 to 1,483.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29.
State: WA
-Peak hospital use estimated to have been on 4/5 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (same as last update.)
-Total deaths projected went from 842 to 855.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/20 instead of 4/19
-Peak hospital use estimated to have been on 4/5 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (same as last update.)
-Total deaths projected went from 842 to 855.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/20 instead of 4/19
If I did not include your state in this thread, the IHME model can be accessed here where you can select your state https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
If">https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st... you are wondering why things have changed since last update, the makers of the model detailed it here http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates ">https://www.healthdata.org/covid/upd...
If">https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st... you are wondering why things have changed since last update, the makers of the model detailed it here http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates ">https://www.healthdata.org/covid/upd...
Also, as always:
-Models are fallible+need to be constantly updated w/ new data.Changes are expected
-There are confidence intervals here, so need to look at full range of possibilities
-I did not make this model, and have no power to change its algorithm.Please dont yell at me
-Models are fallible+need to be constantly updated w/ new data.Changes are expected
-There are confidence intervals here, so need to look at full range of possibilities
-I did not make this model, and have no power to change its algorithm.Please dont yell at me
