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Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. As always, models are fed new info as it comes in to recalibrate its predictions. Let's see what has changed since its last update on Friday.
Overall US:
# of total deaths increased from 61,545 deaths to 68,841 now
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 12,697 to 3,948.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/11 to 4/10, peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/13(today)
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/21 to 5/27
# of total deaths increased from 61,545 deaths to 68,841 now
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 12,697 to 3,948.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/11 to 4/10, peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/13(today)
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/21 to 5/27
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital use remained at 4/8. Peak daily death toll went from 4/9 to 4/10.
-Total deaths now projected to be 14,542 instead of 13,463
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29
-Peak hospital use remained at 4/8. Peak daily death toll went from 4/9 to 4/10.
-Total deaths now projected to be 14,542 instead of 13,463
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29
State: FL
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 5/3 instead of 4/26
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 5/6 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths now projected to be 4,748 instead of 3,999
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 6/1 instead of of 5/23.
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 5/3 instead of 4/26
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 5/6 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths now projected to be 4,748 instead of 3,999
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 6/1 instead of of 5/23.
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/9 instead of 4/8
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update)
-Total deaths projected went from 3,915 to 4,407
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/9 instead of 4/8
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update)
-Total deaths projected went from 3,915 to 4,407
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
State: MI
-Peak hospital use is projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/7
-Peak daily death toll projected is estimated to taken place on 4/10 instead of 4/7
-Total deaths projected went from 1,977 to 2,373
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/24
-Peak hospital use is projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/7
-Peak daily death toll projected is estimated to taken place on 4/10 instead of 4/7
-Total deaths projected went from 1,977 to 2,373
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/24
State: TX
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/26.
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/30 instead of 4/28.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,350 to 2,704
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/26 instead of 5/21.
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/26.
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/30 instead of 4/28.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,350 to 2,704
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/26 instead of 5/21.
State: Va
-Peak hospital use now projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths projected went from 830 to 1,188
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/14 instead of 5/5
-Peak hospital use now projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27
-Total deaths projected went from 830 to 1,188
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/14 instead of 5/5
State: IL
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/3. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 777 to 1,248
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/17
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/3. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/8 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 777 to 1,248
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/17
State: GA
-Peak hospital use on 5/1 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll on 5/2 instead of 4/27.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,564 to 3,718
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/29 instead of 5/25
-Peak hospital use on 5/1 instead of 4/26. Peak daily death toll on 5/2 instead of 4/27.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,564 to 3,718
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/29 instead of 5/25
State: LA
-Peak hospital use was on 4/6 instead of 4/4. Peak daily death toll projected was 4/8 (same as last time).
-Total deaths projected went from 1,125 to 1,141.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 (same as last time).
-Peak hospital use was on 4/6 instead of 4/4. Peak daily death toll projected was 4/8 (same as last time).
-Total deaths projected went from 1,125 to 1,141.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 (same as last time).
State: CA
-Peak hospital use went from 4/13 to 4/17, and peak daily death toll went from 4/15 to 4/19.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,616 to 1,483.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29.
-Peak hospital use went from 4/13 to 4/17, and peak daily death toll went from 4/15 to 4/19.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,616 to 1,483.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 4/29.
State: WA
-Peak hospital use estimated to have been on 4/5 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (same as last update.)
-Total deaths projected went from 842 to 855.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/20 instead of 4/19
-Peak hospital use estimated to have been on 4/5 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (same as last update.)
-Total deaths projected went from 842 to 855.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/20 instead of 4/19
If I did not include your state in this thread, the IHME model can be accessed here where you can select your state https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
If you are wondering why things have changed since last update, the makers of the model detailed it here http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
If you are wondering why things have changed since last update, the makers of the model detailed it here http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Also, as always:
-Models are fallible+need to be constantly updated w/ new data.Changes are expected
-There are confidence intervals here, so need to look at full range of possibilities
-I did not make this model, and have no power to change its algorithm.Please dont yell at me
-Models are fallible+need to be constantly updated w/ new data.Changes are expected
-There are confidence intervals here, so need to look at full range of possibilities
-I did not make this model, and have no power to change its algorithm.Please dont yell at me
