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What do we early-warning cognoscenti now know about Covid-19 that others haven& #39;t currently figured out? What& #39;s the TOC of that blog post? @WilliamAEden @robinhanson
My stab at a TOC:
1: The Dose Hypothesis - the theory that C19 fatalities vary by...
My stab at a TOC:
1: The Dose Hypothesis - the theory that C19 fatalities vary by...
...how high the initial dose, and possibly how it& #39;s administered.
1a: So: Human trials of variolation are hugely urgent.
1b: So: Getting C19 from a roommate might be much worse than getting it on public transportation.
2: Challenge trials of vaccines save net lives.
...
1a: So: Human trials of variolation are hugely urgent.
1b: So: Getting C19 from a roommate might be much worse than getting it on public transportation.
2: Challenge trials of vaccines save net lives.
...
3: Ventilators no longer look as important because they only save 15% of the patients on them.
4: There& #39;s huge apparent variation in CFR by country, and explaining this, or explaining it away, seems kinda important.
4a: CFRs may be underestimated by up to 3-fold, based...
4: There& #39;s huge apparent variation in CFR by country, and explaining this, or explaining it away, seems kinda important.
4a: CFRs may be underestimated by up to 3-fold, based...
... on looking at excess death rates year-over-year.
4b: CFRs may be overestimated because of too little testing.
5: There was a huge EMH failure w/r/t C19, and it hasn& #39;t been explained away AFAIK.
6: Most of the economic damage from a real shock like this one is still due...
4b: CFRs may be overestimated because of too little testing.
5: There was a huge EMH failure w/r/t C19, and it hasn& #39;t been explained away AFAIK.
6: Most of the economic damage from a real shock like this one is still due...
...to the secondary demand shock, which can be prevented by decisive central bank action.
6a: We know the Fed isn& #39;t currently doing enough here because inflation expectations are dropping, showing the AD shock exceeds the AS shock.
6b: Stock prices take into account the next...
6a: We know the Fed isn& #39;t currently doing enough here because inflation expectations are dropping, showing the AD shock exceeds the AS shock.
6b: Stock prices take into account the next...
...15+ years of earnings. The real C19 shock only damages the next 2 years of earnings. A financial recession would damage many more years. Stock prices mainly reflect central bank policy, not C19.
7: Face masks do work, though others seem to have mostly figured this out.
...
7: Face masks do work, though others seem to have mostly figured this out.
...
