The IHME hospitalization models, which were used as the primary basis to shut down America to "flatten the curve," are garbage. Not only does IHME fail to accurately predict tomorrow, it can't even accurately predict yesterday, both at the state and national level.
The IHME state level hospitalization predictions are also garbage. At this point, there is simply no reasonable justification for IHME's continued refusal to backtest its models. Here's Florida, for example.
IHME's doomsday predictions about Georgia have similarly failed to materialize.
IHME's horrificallly wrong modeling of Wuhan coronavirus-related hospitalization in Tennessee, however, is in a class all by itself. IHME claimed that nearly 12,000 Tennesseeans would be hospitalized as of yesterday. The actual number? A total of 567 people. Only off by 2,000%.
At this point, you could draw your own completely made-up and arbitrary Wuhan coronavirus hospitalization curve in Microsoft Paint, and it would likely be more accurate and maybe even more defensible than what IHME is producing each day.
You can follow @seanmdav.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: