Interesting thing on South African TV right now. Live slideshow presentation by Salim Abdool Karim, chair of president’s advisory council on covid and an esteemed epidemiologist. He’s trying to account for why, about two weeks ago, SA case numbers deviated from UK-like trend.

Karim argues that this ‘unique’ spread is not primarily because of a lack of testing. He claims it is mainly because social distancing measures have flattened the curve and have stopped imported cases massively transmitting to local cases.

One could say that skiers didn’t take it to Soweto. (At least that’s the implication.)

Karim says that SA does not just have a unique trend but a unique component to its response. >28,000 community workers going out screening and testing people. Once lockdown lifted infections will rise sharply, he says, but this can be delayed, protecting health system

Then, rather remarkably, he explains in scientific terms (whether R-nought is under one in communities) whether the lockdown will be lifted or not. If pace of spread is slowing then it will be, basically, albeit slowly.

Goes on to talk about what happens then... need to prepare for the peak, increase and protect hospital capacity, ensure mental health provision for bereavement, etc.

Seems to this amateur that Karim is being a little kind about the effect of the lockdown and the lack of public testing to date. BUT overall this is an impressive piece of public, transparent, science-led communication. And I don’t think I’ve seen anything like it it in the UK

Live TV. World class epidemiologist with HIV experience explaining with science why there is a lockdown, how it is going, and how decisions will be (or should be) made about the future of the lockdown. Telegraphing what will happen over the next few months. SA at its best.