Some important context about the COVID-19 hospitalization numbers we& #39;re seeing from NC DHHS.

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count

The">https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions... state& #39;s been publishing these numbers daily since March 27.

Since then, we& #39;ve seen hospitalizations drop three times, the largest of which was from Friday, through the weekend, and today.

In that time, hospitalizations dropped more than one-quarter from 423 to 313.

But, caution.

This number is based on a daily survey sent by DHHS to hospitals across NC.

Not every hospital responds every day, and the state reports the response rate as a percentage here (That& #39;s also why you see the total bed number fluctuate up/down over time): #by-reporting-hospitals">https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count #by-reporting-hospitals">https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions...

Response rates since Friday:
4/10 -> 87%
4/11 -> 78%
4/12 -> 69%
4/13 -> 66%

So even though we saw a big drop in hospitalizations, we don& #39;t know if that& #39;s because there are fewer COVID-19 patients in hospitals or if the hospitals just aren& #39;t reporting them.

We also don& #39;t know *which* hospitals aren& #39;t reporting, since NC DHHS isn& #39;t telling us that.

Are they the big ones? Small ones? Those serving a massive population? A tiny one?

That makes it tough to know how big the gap in our data could be.

All drops in hospitalizations so far have occurred during drops in response rates:

4/1-4/2
10% drop in patients
7 pct pt drop in response rate

4/4-4/5
4% drop in patients
23 pct pt drop in response rate

4-10-4/13
26% drop in patients
21 pct pt drop in response rate

But not every drop in response rate translates to drop in reported hospitalizations.

3/28-3/30
57% increase in patients
17 pctpt drop in response rate

4/1-4/4
33% increase in patients
9 pctpt drop in response rate

4/8-4/9
3% increase in patients
5 pctpt drop in response rate