An important thread on the worst case scenarios for higher ed.

If colleges aren't open in-person for 2020-21, state schools will have problems. Ivy-peer privates will close but survive. No one pays $54k/yr to take online classes. Small private schools will close down en masse. https://twitter.com/indyfromspace/status/1249391408794030085

To clarify: The problems for public universities will be debt service on dorms/dining halls etc which are not being used. Public schools will attract some online students although many will wait a year.

Small private schools will not attract online students because it's too expensive for what it is. So they'll close their doors, declare financial exigency, and lay off faculty. Many of them will never re-open.

People have been predicting for a while now that many small colleges will not make it out of the 2020s due to declining college enrollments. This would accelerate the process.

Structural factors in American higher ed favor centralization and large campuses. Overhead costs for schools have risen steadily over the past 50 years.

But not everyone wants to go to a university with 50,000 students.

Small rural colleges also used to provide opportunities for nontraditional students and people who can't re-locate for school.

But not at $30,000+ a year.