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A thread on food security. Why?
• i've said agricultural commodity charts suggested a crisis soon
• covid19 may be that crisis
• most people currently don't expect disruptions
• but farmers and corporations warn of one
• some poor countries have started reduced exports
• i've said agricultural commodity charts suggested a crisis soon
• covid19 may be that crisis
• most people currently don't expect disruptions
• but farmers and corporations warn of one
• some poor countries have started reduced exports
Point #1: The Charts
There has been a continued unwinding of prices since the last economic bubble/great recession.
Yes harvesting methods continue to be more efficient. But global population continues to rise and armed conflict has still not been eradicated.
There has been a continued unwinding of prices since the last economic bubble/great recession.
Yes harvesting methods continue to be more efficient. But global population continues to rise and armed conflict has still not been eradicated.
Point #2: Supply Disruptions
There's enough land to grow enough food for people
But that becomes difficult when individual people & entire Nations begin to hoard
Which is exacerbated by labour shortages
Lack of movement = labour shortages = fear = hoarding = supply shortages
There's enough land to grow enough food for people
But that becomes difficult when individual people & entire Nations begin to hoard
Which is exacerbated by labour shortages
Lack of movement = labour shortages = fear = hoarding = supply shortages
Point #3: Most People Are Not Worried or Have the Space
A general rule of thumb
• 100sq/ft a person to eat, or
• 200sq/ft for year round consumption (canning & cold storage)
But not everyone is madly efficient & canning/glass companies likely can't meet an influx of demand
A general rule of thumb
• 100sq/ft a person to eat, or
• 200sq/ft for year round consumption (canning & cold storage)
But not everyone is madly efficient & canning/glass companies likely can't meet an influx of demand
• Poor nations are reducing exports
• Farmers will have less cheap labour this year
• Many within the general population are trying to stockpile some food
Thus:
There may not be a total lack the food right away. There certainly will be less choices and some higher prices.
• Farmers will have less cheap labour this year
• Many within the general population are trying to stockpile some food
Thus:
There may not be a total lack the food right away. There certainly will be less choices and some higher prices.
This will impact Nations differently.
Poor Nations will suffer on balance sheets/debt due to reduced exports. But they'll reduce political pressure by not exporting food.
Reduced travel means less cheap labour, therefore less choice and higher prices in developed Nations.
Poor Nations will suffer on balance sheets/debt due to reduced exports. But they'll reduce political pressure by not exporting food.
Reduced travel means less cheap labour, therefore less choice and higher prices in developed Nations.
Gardening is something everybody can do
You can grow:
• inside your home
• on a balcony
• in a garden
• convert yard space to Garden space
• in containers/pots
Containers are a great option for indoors, balconies, & poor outdoor soil
Vine plants in pots need less soil
You can grow:
• inside your home
• on a balcony
• in a garden
• convert yard space to Garden space
• in containers/pots
Containers are a great option for indoors, balconies, & poor outdoor soil
Vine plants in pots need less soil
Do I expect utter Doom? Not yet
Could another crisis tail off of this one, yes
Could we have another even worse pandemic in our lifetime, it's possible
I see no reason why people shouldn't take food security more seriously in a globalized world with rising temperatures
<end>
Could another crisis tail off of this one, yes
Could we have another even worse pandemic in our lifetime, it's possible
I see no reason why people shouldn't take food security more seriously in a globalized world with rising temperatures
<end>
I guess I'll throw it on caveat about hunting:
Yes it's an option, but everyone can't do it
Hunting is far harder than most people think
Trapping is even more ridiculous
There's not enough wild animals for everybody to go out hunting
We can all garden & keep our own seeds.
Yes it's an option, but everyone can't do it
Hunting is far harder than most people think
Trapping is even more ridiculous
There's not enough wild animals for everybody to go out hunting
We can all garden & keep our own seeds.
