A thread on food security. Why?

• i've said agricultural commodity charts suggested a crisis soon

• covid19 may be that crisis

• most people currently don't expect disruptions

• but farmers and corporations warn of one

• some poor countries have started reduced exports

Point #1: The Charts

There has been a continued unwinding of prices since the last economic bubble/great recession.

Yes harvesting methods continue to be more efficient. But global population continues to rise and armed conflict has still not been eradicated.

Point #2: Supply Disruptions

There's enough land to grow enough food for people

But that becomes difficult when individual people & entire Nations begin to hoard

Which is exacerbated by labour shortages

Lack of movement = labour shortages = fear = hoarding = supply shortages

Point #3: Most People Are Not Worried or Have the Space

A general rule of thumb

• 100sq/ft a person to eat, or

• 200sq/ft for year round consumption (canning & cold storage)

But not everyone is madly efficient & canning/glass companies likely can't meet an influx of demand

• Poor nations are reducing exports

• Farmers will have less cheap labour this year

• Many within the general population are trying to stockpile some food

Thus:

There may not be a total lack the food right away. There certainly will be less choices and some higher prices.

This will impact Nations differently.

Poor Nations will suffer on balance sheets/debt due to reduced exports. But they'll reduce political pressure by not exporting food.

Reduced travel means less cheap labour, therefore less choice and higher prices in developed Nations.

Gardening is something everybody can do

You can grow:

• inside your home
• on a balcony
• in a garden
• convert yard space to Garden space
• in containers/pots

Containers are a great option for indoors, balconies, & poor outdoor soil

Vine plants in pots need less soil

Do I expect utter Doom? Not yet

Could another crisis tail off of this one, yes

Could we have another even worse pandemic in our lifetime, it's possible

I see no reason why people shouldn't take food security more seriously in a globalized world with rising temperatures

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I guess I'll throw it on caveat about hunting:

Yes it's an option, but everyone can't do it

Hunting is far harder than most people think

Trapping is even more ridiculous

There's not enough wild animals for everybody to go out hunting

We can all garden & keep our own seeds.