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Something isn’t adding up with COVID19 and SE Asia. There’s dozens of leading indicators that should make you think hospitals are overwhelmed (if not bodies piling up in the streets like Ecuador) in Malaysia, Thailand, & Indonesia. Maybe Vietnam and the Philippines outside Luzon
They should be Italy or NYC by now. The assumption is that it was a First Wave that was burning through their countries mostly undetected for 2+ months. They also had a *ton* of European ‘banana pancake trail’ tourists... all of ‘em.
https://twitter.com/intewig/status/1249717819328983040?s=21 https://twitter.com/intewig/status/1249717819328983040
https://twitter.com/intewig/status/1249717819328983040?s=21 https://twitter.com/intewig/status/1249717819328983040
Indonesia + Philippines combined is half of Florida’s current confirmed total. My earlier model about demographic distribution only partially explains it. If the baseline R0 is 3.5-5.5, even 50% climate sensativity doesn’t explain it well enough
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1242372954584805376?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1242372954584805376
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1242372954584805376?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1242372954584805376
TR crew apparently got it from some Europeans staying at the same hotel in Da Nang! If you’ve ever traveled this part of the world, you know how European tourists are _everywhere_. NYC seems be mostly from EU imports too!
https://twitter.com/alubacap/status/1249718978861301762?s=21 https://twitter.com/alubacap/status/1249718978861301762
https://twitter.com/alubacap/status/1249718978861301762?s=21 https://twitter.com/alubacap/status/1249718978861301762
Why is Singapore exploding with new cases now when their No. 2 & 3 import countries were Indonesia and Malaysia? Malaysia + Indonesia + Philippines = 3/4 of Florida’s 20k confirmed cases.
that’s why I cited Ecuador in the OP tweet. At some point reality overcomes testing and bodies start piling up in the streets. I’m not hearing many RUMINT anecdotes or unconfirmed vids of SE Asian hospitals getting flooded.
https://twitter.com/kevinleversee/status/1249720943062089730?s=21 https://twitter.com/kevinleversee/status/1249720943062089730
https://twitter.com/kevinleversee/status/1249720943062089730?s=21 https://twitter.com/kevinleversee/status/1249720943062089730
An article @jakeadelstein shared yesterday noted that the UK _also_ had BCG vaccines at birth for the relevant time period.
https://twitter.com/johnjmcdonald/status/1249722279237386247?s=21 https://twitter.com/johnjmcdonald/status/1249722279237386247
https://twitter.com/johnjmcdonald/status/1249722279237386247?s=21 https://twitter.com/johnjmcdonald/status/1249722279237386247
If I’m not being clear: I think places like Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines are probably near 1M infections right now, or should be. Testing will catch only a small portion of them (like everywhere). I’m the first to preach about time lags.... but wtf. What’s going on?
There’s a study I looked over that I need to track back down that showed these countries had more Wuhan travel than most places. But now add US/EU/UK tourists. It doesn’t make sense. I’m not begging the question... I really don’t know the answer.
https://twitter.com/gidyupz/status/1249725235298996227?s=21 https://twitter.com/gidyupz/status/1249725235298996227
https://twitter.com/gidyupz/status/1249725235298996227?s=21 https://twitter.com/gidyupz/status/1249725235298996227
http://PlaguePlus.com uses a fairly simple formula to calculate total estimate of infections based on death counts + trajectories. At least Indonesia and the Philippines show up in the Top 15 list.
Where’s Thailand and Malaysia, though? Malaysia was No. 3 exporter to SG.
Where’s Thailand and Malaysia, though? Malaysia was No. 3 exporter to SG.
Vietnam reports 265 cases and 0 deaths. It’s the denominator I most have issue with. OK fine, they covered up five deaths if the baseline IFR/CFR is ~2%. They should have more than 265 cases, though! VN imports on the USS Roosevelt took down the @SECNAV!
https://twitter.com/van_trang_n/status/1248491597412487169?s=21 https://twitter.com/van_trang_n/status/1248491597412487169
https://twitter.com/van_trang_n/status/1248491597412487169?s=21 https://twitter.com/van_trang_n/status/1248491597412487169
The population pyramid COVID19 model I created last month assumed random (equal) infection distribution across and between age groups. If that’s wrong and young ppl infect each other at fairly low rates, it might explain a very long time lag in SE Asia.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1242415749332742152?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1242415749332742152
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1242415749332742152?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1242415749332742152
OSINT-y reports I know of:
- Some rural PH hospitals turning patients away (rumor). Also running out of PPE gear.
- Thai hospitals running out of PPE gear
- A Reuters report showing a big spike in Indonesian funerals.
That’s it.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249722006074880000?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249722006074880000
- Some rural PH hospitals turning patients away (rumor). Also running out of PPE gear.
- Thai hospitals running out of PPE gear
- A Reuters report showing a big spike in Indonesian funerals.
That’s it.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249722006074880000?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249722006074880000
I was skeptical of climate/temp sensitivity until I saw the constant upward revisions for pre-lockdown Wuhah R0 estimates. 3.7 then >5.5. If that’s the baseline R0, you’d wind up w/ what Imperial assumed (2.4) even if cut by 50%. It goes from Insane to Bad https://twitter.com/stefanauer_hku/status/1249891677742886912?s=21
