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Part 2
If you had to pick 3outstanding characters on the OPEC side, they wld be
Javier Alfonso, Father of Opec(see above)
Anwar Sadat, Egyptian PM
& Ahmed Yamani
Sadat forced war on Israel (& nearly destroyed them)
But his brilliance lay in the way he saw war https://twitter.com/IndradeepKhan/status/1247861146234707969
If you had to pick 3outstanding characters on the OPEC side, they wld be
Javier Alfonso, Father of Opec(see above)
Anwar Sadat, Egyptian PM
& Ahmed Yamani
Sadat forced war on Israel (& nearly destroyed them)
But his brilliance lay in the way he saw war https://twitter.com/IndradeepKhan/status/1247861146234707969
In fact the LAST thing Sadat wanted when he forced war, was the destruction of Israel
He went to war, so he could force PEACE on reasonable terms
Post Yum Kippur the foundations of permanent peace in Middle East was laid
The Camp David accord in 1979 was the culmination
He went to war, so he could force PEACE on reasonable terms
Post Yum Kippur the foundations of permanent peace in Middle East was laid
The Camp David accord in 1979 was the culmination
Ahmed Yamani is lesser known (who the F* is he?)
Yamani w/ the Saudi Oil Minister for 24yrs frm 1962-1986
Described by Kissinger as "Barred by Birth from being King &by talent for an ordinary existence", Yamani was singularly responsible for the Saudis "controlling" World Oil
Yamani w/ the Saudi Oil Minister for 24yrs frm 1962-1986
Described by Kissinger as "Barred by Birth from being King &by talent for an ordinary existence", Yamani was singularly responsible for the Saudis "controlling" World Oil
He did this by focussing not on Price or Production
In fact he did it by producing LESS. This ensured that Saudi's had spare capacity.
This gave Saudi's unprecedented leverage
Like a Puppeteer, Oil prices would now depend on how much of the spare capacity the Saudis used
In fact he did it by producing LESS. This ensured that Saudi's had spare capacity.
This gave Saudi's unprecedented leverage
Like a Puppeteer, Oil prices would now depend on how much of the spare capacity the Saudis used
He was also against too high an oil price
He believed they were unsustainable and would lead to long term demand shocks, causing more harm than good to oil producing countries
Before him nobody really spoke about the demand elasticity of oil
He believed they were unsustainable and would lead to long term demand shocks, causing more harm than good to oil producing countries
Before him nobody really spoke about the demand elasticity of oil
He was also responsible for the Nationalisation of Aramco
Post Yum Kippur, inline w/ Arab Nationalistic sentiments, Aramco was nationalised in graded manner
It was done w/out disrupting either Saudi relationship w/ USA or even the commercial linkages w/ the four US OIL MNCs
Post Yum Kippur, inline w/ Arab Nationalistic sentiments, Aramco was nationalised in graded manner
It was done w/out disrupting either Saudi relationship w/ USA or even the commercial linkages w/ the four US OIL MNCs
Coming back... The Opec Yom Kippur shutdown in 1973 had extraordinary economic impacts
OPEC revenues increased from $23Bn in 1972 to $140Bn in 1978
On the other hand US Output FELL by 6% between 1973 and 1975 and unemployment DOUBLED
OPEC revenues increased from $23Bn in 1972 to $140Bn in 1978
On the other hand US Output FELL by 6% between 1973 and 1975 and unemployment DOUBLED
Then came another shock
Ayatollah Khomeini
Many ppl ask, what sparked the Iranian Revolution?
It was a news article on 7Jan 1978 which said Khomeni was
Gay
Drug addict
Indian (
)
It also questioned his faith
Thousands came onto streets of holy city of Qom &hundreds died
Ayatollah Khomeini
Many ppl ask, what sparked the Iranian Revolution?
It was a news article on 7Jan 1978 which said Khomeni was
Gay
Drug addict
Indian (
)It also questioned his faith
Thousands came onto streets of holy city of Qom &hundreds died
To know the Iran protests, we need to know a little about the Shias
Shias comprise 15% of Muslims, mostly in Iran, Iraq and Lebabnon
15% of India's Muslims are Shias mainly in UP
Shias believe that the prophet anointed his son-in law Ali as his successor (Rest dont)
Shias comprise 15% of Muslims, mostly in Iran, Iraq and Lebabnon
15% of India's Muslims are Shias mainly in UP
Shias believe that the prophet anointed his son-in law Ali as his successor (Rest dont)
Shia Mythology is inimitably tied to martyrdom of Ali&his son Hussain
On Muharram, Shias flagellate themselves in memory of Hussain in the battle of Karbala
In same spirt of bloody sacrifice, in the same year, in the Holy month of Muharram, Khomeni demanded "Torrents of Blood
On Muharram, Shias flagellate themselves in memory of Hussain in the battle of Karbala
In same spirt of bloody sacrifice, in the same year, in the Holy month of Muharram, Khomeni demanded "Torrents of Blood
Millions came onto the streets to offer it & Shah already weak, could not counter it
The (Islamic) Revolution had won
This lead to the American hostage crisis and the Second oil shock TRIPLING prices in 1979
Shah went to exile in Egypt, expiring a year later
The (Islamic) Revolution had won
This lead to the American hostage crisis and the Second oil shock TRIPLING prices in 1979
Shah went to exile in Egypt, expiring a year later
All very interesting, but I know you are waiting for Putin
He is coming soon, dont worry
But before that I will talk about 2 things
A) The development of Oil as a traded instrument
B) The rise of the Bathists - Assad and Sadaam Hussain
He is coming soon, dont worry
But before that I will talk about 2 things
A) The development of Oil as a traded instrument
B) The rise of the Bathists - Assad and Sadaam Hussain
Oil price was previously determined largely by supply contracts between Producers&Consumers.
A consumer could not come and just "BUY" oil
However the oil shocks &the invocation of force majuere by producers, lead to "traded" oil increase from 10% in the '70 to 50% in 1982
A consumer could not come and just "BUY" oil
However the oil shocks &the invocation of force majuere by producers, lead to "traded" oil increase from 10% in the '70 to 50% in 1982
And on 30Mar 1983, Nymex originally built for eggs&butter contracts, started Oil Futures trading
They would use West Texas Intermediate or WTI as benchmark
Traded oil freed consumers from having to depend on relationship w/ producers
It also allowed them to buy/hedge for future
They would use West Texas Intermediate or WTI as benchmark
Traded oil freed consumers from having to depend on relationship w/ producers
It also allowed them to buy/hedge for future
The BathĂst were started in 1930s in Paris by Syrian Students
They aimed at creating a single Arab nation hewn by military might&anti-imperialism&secularism
They whd split into 2wings
The Syrian wing whd spawn Hafiz al-Assad(father of Bashar)
The Iraqi wing Saddam Hussain
They aimed at creating a single Arab nation hewn by military might&anti-imperialism&secularism
They whd split into 2wings
The Syrian wing whd spawn Hafiz al-Assad(father of Bashar)
The Iraqi wing Saddam Hussain
Saddam Hussein wld come to power in 1979 &would launch the brutal Iran-Iraq war tht killed 1million
The lodestar was what was described as the 2nd battle of Qadisiyah
In the 1st battle in 636AD, the Arabs had destroyed the Persian Sassanid empire
Hussain wanted to do the same
The lodestar was what was described as the 2nd battle of Qadisiyah
In the 1st battle in 636AD, the Arabs had destroyed the Persian Sassanid empire
Hussain wanted to do the same
The Iraqi Nazi-like Blitzkrieg initially surprised Iran
Till once more the martyrdom of Ali&Hussain took over
Millions of Shiites took to the battle fields, many carrying their own coffins
Khomeni told them "The purest joy in Islam is to kill and be killed" and they obliged
Till once more the martyrdom of Ali&Hussain took over
Millions of Shiites took to the battle fields, many carrying their own coffins
Khomeni told them "The purest joy in Islam is to kill and be killed" and they obliged
Oil price rose 250%, Inflation SPIKED &the Fed increased Rates to 21.5%
But then... something started happening
Demand started dropping, DRAMATICALLY, just as Yamani had predicted
And this whd lead to the THIRD oil shock
But this time the shock wld be of a very different kind
But then... something started happening
Demand started dropping, DRAMATICALLY, just as Yamani had predicted
And this whd lead to the THIRD oil shock
But this time the shock wld be of a very different kind
This shock would finish the USSR
Putin as a young KGB officer in East Germany, would see his beloved Soviet Union Collapse
He would neither forget nor forgive
But thats Part 3
Putin as a young KGB officer in East Germany, would see his beloved Soviet Union Collapse
He would neither forget nor forgive
But thats Part 3
