One nerd's attempt at summarizing where we are in the econ response to the crisis, w/ focus on US. [thrd]

The fiscal & monetary responses, both here & abroad, have been aggressive; gov'ts/central banks in adv economies got the urgency of the moment pretty quickly. BUT...

The economic hole is a lot deeper than what we've done to fill it. Real GDP is tanking and US unemp headed for 15-20%--if we're lucky. Fed has credit pipes pretty unclogged, but that's indirect. Direct fiscal interventions need much better execution and...

...some additions.
Re execution, checks are starting to get out to households (that's historically speedy, btw) but we must do more to help non-filers, veterans, SSI recips get $ they desperately need.

Unemp Insurance offices swamped, especially in places (NC, FL) that have aggressively divested in the program. State offices have to deal with both millions of new claims and new rules as to who gets benefits. Very tough; they need help, more $/staff to run the programs.

In FL, they're answering 2% of the calls to UI offices, the $600 plus-up is just starting to go out in a couple of states, and PUA (new pandemic asst to groups formerly left out) hardly in place yet. Trump admin needs to get noisy about this, but don't count on it.

Loans to businesses also facing execution challenges as banks have to sign off on millions of loans & get $ to firms who must maintain their pre-crisis payrolls to have loan become grant. 1 thing I'm hearing: biz that laid folks off aren't prone to rehire them when there's...

...nothing for them to do. What they want is $ to pay rent, debts, fixed costs, build up inventory when the time comes. If that's right, then all the more motivation for the feds to get UI delivering the goods & another round of checks to HHs too.

So, phase 4 should focus on getting stuff we've done working, re-upping stuff that needs repeating (hospitals, UI plus-up, checks, biz loans/grants), and adding what's missing (SNAP, state relief, health coverage* [*have a piece on what's needed here out soon])

OK, but when's the grand reopening??!! Depends on much more testing/tracing than we're see, literally 10x what we're now doing. So sorry--and this is all hugely speculative--but "May's in play" seems optimistic to me.

Also, reopening won't be grand. We go from red to green through yellow. The interim economy, if we get it right, will be some never-before-seen mixture of commerce and social distancing.

Final punchline: fiscal/monetary authorities are being admirably reactive, but much more is needed and here in the US, execution needs way more attention. But if we don't come out of this realizing how exposed we are to market failures and massive external shocks...

...and take commensurate action to stand up robust systems--federalized UI, universal health coverage, supply chain backups--then we will have learned nothing and will be sitting ducks for being right back where we are before we know it [end]