I'm pretty favorable toward corn right now for a few reasons, a short story by FF:

First, May tends to be a fairly strong month seasonally. On a 30yr trailing basis its the third strongest month of the year.

Second, sentiment is in the gutter at only 22% bulls Thursday (big tracker) near the low extreme of the last 5 and 10 years. When below 30% bulls here last 5 years, we have strong odds for higher prices 1, 2, and 3 months later.

Third, commercials now net long, not to an extreme, however, with the net >30k I note that in all instances of this event the last 5 years we closed higher 3 months out 100% of the time. In sum, longs better Risk/Reward than shorts

seasonal sell window for corn (sell ~4/10 cover ~4/24) also coming near an end, buy dec corn / sell sep ~4/22 and exit near end of July coming into view

Net comm position crossed above +90k last week, other crosses marked with red dots last 5 years. By contrast, the week of 1/28 net short here was -139,821. In april wk over wk net long rate of change: +53%, +28%, +58%, +23%

b shaped composites

Despite price lows being made about a month ago the lack of real upside progress since has kept sentiment depressed. When sentiment below 40% bulls and 2wks forward last five years:

per thread, this is corn