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As a home-bound experimentalist and Philly resident (who hasn't quite gotten around to setting up a lab in the basement), I've been taking a look at data, new and old... (a thread)
Philadelphia's SARS-CoV-2 testing data has been interesting to examine. Here is a plot of the first two weeks on a linear scale. The growth of positive tests was exponential. (2/7)
On a log-linear plot, that data looks like a straight line. Here, I plot the SARS-CoV-2 positives (red symbols), the positive cases per day (gold), and the deaths among Philadelphia Residents with COVID-19. (3/7)
As social distancing measures were put in place (and perhaps due to other epidemiological factors), the total # of + cases slowed. The dashed line still represents exponential growth, but with a higher doubling time. (4/7)
Philadelphia has been reporting a bit under 500 new cases per day (yellow symbols) for the last 7-10 days, so the growth is linear with time. (5/7)
Back to a linear scale. Unfortunately, COVID-19 deaths are beginning to increase. A rough empirical model is about 3.5% of the positive cases with a 3 day lag. (6/7)
The data in this thread is published daily at https://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/testing-and-data/ What should we conclude from it? I welcome your thoughtful comments and questions. (7/7)
P.S. Dear Philly L&I... just kidding about the home lab.
