I know everyone is saying models were wrong, but here's what I want to know: How were they wrong? My understanding is that the models used certain estimates of how many people would self-isolate, etc. So let's say 80% of those >60, 30% of those 20-40, etc. 1/

2/ Was it those estimates that were wrong? Or was it the extrapolation based on correct estimates? I think that matters greatly b/c the former is much more a questimate impossible to perfect b/c never b/f have we tried this, while later was/is based on scientific extrapolation

3/3 which while based on still unknowns about COVID-19, could be much more sound based on past outbreaks and scientific knowledge re transmit-a-bility. I think "the models were wrong" doesn't tell us much re how the gov't reacted. Has anyone seen a good analysis of this?