This will get me into trouble but here goes:

The amount of energy & time here spent arguing over Biden's VP is inversely proportional to amount of difference that choice will make. VP has almost never been a crucial factor to the election outcome & I doubt it will this time. 1/

I get the two main arguments why it matters now: Biden's age makes the choice much more important & we need to motivate key groups and/or geographies.

On the former I basically agree, but not in a way that would likely change the outcome. The age thing means the VP needs to 2/

be meaningfully younger (ideally 20+ years) and also immediately & unquestionably qualified. But there are a lot of good choices there, and that is about REASSURING voters - not changing anyone's vote or driving turnout.

On the idea that a VP choice will motivate people to 3/

come out & vote, I'm not sure there are significant constituencies for whom a referendum election on Donald Trump isn't going to be the primary motivating factor.

I get that margins matter and if we can improve turnout even a bit here and there or with certain groups, that 4/

can be the key - but I'm still looking for historical evidence where a VP choice did that in a meaningful way. I'd argue the most impactful VP choice on the margins in recent years was...Sarah Palin, who was so comically unqualified to be VP to an old nominee that she likely 5/

HURT her ticket on the margins enough to drive Obama over-the-top in places like Indiana & North Carolina. But still, Obama was going to beat McCain and beat him solidly regardless of VP choices.

In terms of geography, the only time I can think of a VP flipping a state that 6/

the top of the ticket would not have won without the VP is LBJ bringing Texas to JFK. I could be wrong, but can't think of many more examples beyond that.

I think the passion & time spent here arguing is more a reflection of the idea that Biden may serve only one term and 7/

therefore the next VP choice is in the driver's seat for the next nomination. I get it, and that's probably why I share the same preference that many of my friends do.

But where I may disagree is I just don't think the choice will matter that much to the outcome THIS time. 8/

Biden is running on restoring the soul of the nation and bringing steady, experienced leadership and decency to the White House in a time of crisis. Whomever he chooses should & likely will reinforce that message.

IMO 95% of people who are going to vote for Biden would vote 9/

for him if he put a bag of rusty nails on a ticket running to replace Trump (I certainly would). The remaining 5% would prefer a qualified, experienced person on the ticket to reassure us given Biden's age.

So when it comes to Veepstakes I personally believe 2 things: 10/

First, unlike elections, we have absolutely no say. This is a process for Biden & his team. Biden is the nominee, so we have no choice but to trust his process. The choice will & SHOULD be driven ultimately by him choosing the person he's most comfortable running & governing 11/

with. He's going to need a lot of help repairing the damage left behind by Trump if he's able to win. All hands will need to be on deck. But, we really can't influence the choice much and arguing with other people on merits of our preference is futile since they have the 12/

equal say in the process as we do: none.

Second, let's just be honest that we want the choice to be the person we like best and whom we'd like to see as a future POTUS. If it were up to me I'd pick @KamalaHarris for those reasons.

But I'm not going to make the case that 13/

on electoral outcomes she's going to make a bigger difference than certain other choices. Because not only do I not KNOW that for sure, but it would fly in the face of history to make the conclusion that ANY VP choice matters that much.

Maybe this year is dramatically 14/

different than decades of past history. I'm not saying that snarkily, this IS a unique year and I could be wrong - this could be the time that the VP choice is going to make a genuine impact on the outcome.

But top of the ticket is still likely to be where the race is. 15/

Biden vs. Trump. Or, to be more specific: a referendum on the incumbent president, Donald Trump. I truly believe that's where the race will be decided.

Having said that, telling people not to argue for their choice on Twitter is also pretty futile, so ducking for cover now /end

P.S. despite everything I said I think it was 100% right for Biden to commit to a woman VP because it's the right thing to do in & of itself.

I have no idea how it will play out electorally, but women should be leading our country simply because they should.