Thread on the DA’s Smart Lockdown working paper & position on the extension of the lockdown.

-We want to save lives. To do that we must deal with the twin threat to SA lives: health & economic disaster.

-This is a situation we will have to manage for likely 18-24 months until treatment/vaccine becomes available. So we now need a sustainable medium-long term strategy. We propose a Smart Lockdown, which is different stages of lockdown coupled with smart interventions.

How we move between stages of economic/social activity will depend on various factors, many within our control:
-Ability to test randomly & at scale. -Deploying track & trace tech.
-Capacity: ICU beds, ventilators etc
-Assisting high risk groups, esp >60 to remain self-isolated

-Distancing & other protocols developed at a sectoral level
-Availability &use of PPE. Wearing of masks by public.
-Public education campaign: hygiene, symptoms to look for, when to present to hospital etc.
-Weather (jury still out but some studies say may play a part)

These factors, non-exhaustive- will help to keep the effective reproduction number R(t) low. R(t) is the number of susceptible people 1 infected case will infect. So if we have an R(t) of 2, on average for every infected case 2 more will be infected. An R(t) below 1 is ideal.

This phased/transitional strategy is being considered by numerous policymakers globally. It can also be called ‘suppress and lift’ or ‘stop and go’. As the path between stages is not necessarily linear. We might have to go from stage 1 back to 3 depending on health data.

Even if we extend the hard lockdown, stage 4 in our model, for another 2 weeks we still need a strategy for thereafter. We cannot remain in stage 4. But we undoubtedly support and supported the hard lockdown for 21 days. It’s a stage that buys you time and to get ready.

If we’re going to extend hard lockdown then we dare not waste it. It’s been bought at a heavy cost. If we need time to increase capacity etc, it needs to be transparent what the targets are & where we are now. Worse scenario: extend and be nowhere closer to targets after 2 weeks.

It is just that, a working paper, meaning we’ll add more flesh to it in the coming days & weeks and also adjust the position as the situation develops.
We prepared this to contribute, working together requires us to work not sit back. #StaySafe #StayAtHome