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We need to talk about the origins of #COVID19. A thread.
We now know that none of the animals tested at Wuhan's wet market had #COVID19 and about a third of initial reported cases in humans from early December 2019 had no connection to the market, including the first reported case.
https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/from-bats-to-human-lungs-the-evolution-of-a-coronavirus
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally#
https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/from-bats-to-human-lungs-the-evolution-of-a-coronavirus
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally#
Leaked official documents have shown that the actual first known case of #COVID19 in Hubei was detected in mid-November, weeks before the cluster of cases connected to the Wuhan seafood market were reported. https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html
To be clear, after months of research, there is no solid evidence that animals at the seafood market in Wuhan, which also specialises in domestic and wild animals, were the source of the #COVID19 outbreak.
So then where did it come from?
So then where did it come from?
Now that the genome sequence for the virus has been analysed by @scrippsresearch we can at be assured that #COVID19 evolved through natural selection. We can rule out genetic engineering in a lab. https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200317-andersen-covid-19-coronavirus.html
Scripps researchers think it most likely that the initial transmission occurred from bats to humans via an intermediate animal host. They conclude the animal host would likely require "a high population density and an ACE2-encoding gene similar to the human ortholog".
So which animals fit this criteria? A further study identified the most likely candidate list: civets, pigs, pangolins, cats, cows, buffalos, goats, sheep and pigeons. Almost all are intensively farmed for food or traditional medicine. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920300496
Suspicions around wild animal origins of #COVID19 have already led to the closure of 20,000 wild animal farms across China. But there has been almost no attention given to the highest population density animals on the list of likely hosts. Most notably, pigs.
Pigs have very similar immune systems to humans, making it easy for viruses to cross, such as with Nipah virus in 1998. And 3 years before #COVID19 another #coronavirus strain SADS killed tens of thousands of pigs in Chinese farms. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK114486/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/
Hubei Province is one of the top producers of pigs in China. Industrial factory farms, where hundreds or thousands of animals are confined in high density barns, are the ideal breeding grounds for the evolution of new pathogens like #COVID19. https://www.grain.org/en/article/6418-building-a-factory-farmed-future-one-pandemic-at-a-time
China's factory farms are still reeling from the massive outbreak of African swine fever that has wiped out a quarter of global pig populations. In these conditions it is entirely possible an outbreak of a new #coronavirus among pigs could go unnoticed. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/31/quarter-of-worlds-pig-population-to-die-of-african-swine-fever
"The industrialisation and corporate consolidation of meat production has increased risks for the emergence of global pandemics such as #COVID19. But this reality has been completely ignored by governments and the big meat companies they are beholden to." https://www.grain.org/en/article/6437-new-research-suggests-industrial-livestock-not-wet-markets-might-be-origin-of-covid-19
"Anyone who aims to understand why viruses are becoming more dangerous must investigate the industrial model of agriculture and, more specifically, livestock production. At present, few governments, and few scientists, are prepared to do so." https://climateandcapitalism.com/2020/03/11/capitalist-agriculture-and-covid-19-a-deadly-combination/
Despite much finger-wagging at China's more uncommon forms of animal consumption, the evidence suggests the origin of #COVID19 is really just the same way animals are farmed in the West. Until we're willing to accept that, how long until the next outbreak?
With thanks to @GRAIN_org whose work this thread is largely based on.
