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Content Warning: Discussing Deaths Mathematically.
Just a little math so you can base your current perceptions on real numbers and not whatever click bait title the moron media is putting out currently.
Based on this FedGov Health infographic:
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_10.pdf
Just a little math so you can base your current perceptions on real numbers and not whatever click bait title the moron media is putting out currently.
Based on this FedGov Health infographic:
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_10.pdf
Specifically these sections (screenshot for convenience of this thread):
Today we're looking at how we know what we don't know.
That is how many cases are there actually?
Today we're looking at how we know what we don't know.
That is how many cases are there actually?
Some data points and assumptions:
- On average recovery is taking 2 1/2 weeks
- For those needing hospitalisation it happens between days 5-10 from showing symptoms
- ICU is required for ~5% of cases
- 10-15% need lesser hospital based intervention.
- On average recovery is taking 2 1/2 weeks
- For those needing hospitalisation it happens between days 5-10 from showing symptoms
- ICU is required for ~5% of cases
- 10-15% need lesser hospital based intervention.
Some other assumptions for the tin foil hat brigade:
- Our hospitals and health system aren't hiding hospital admissions or deaths
- There is not a world wide conspiracy to hide whats going on to install a new world order and control the virus inserted 5G chips in our brains.
- Our hospitals and health system aren't hiding hospital admissions or deaths
- There is not a world wide conspiracy to hide whats going on to install a new world order and control the virus inserted 5G chips in our brains.
Based on our 2.5 week recovery period and our known cases per day our expected "resolved" cases should be 3614. With 2723 cases yet to be "resolved".
Resolution of a case is, essentially, either a recovery or a death. Current AUS government figures puts recoveries at 3494. Not that far from our mathematical prediction based on numbers from other countries.
For this we also have 61 deaths, which is nearly 1% of all cases, but ~1.7% of "resolved" cases.
Based on our 2.5wk horizon for case resolution, I expect us to see deaths continue to be announced for the next week, and then drop off as daily case increases drop off with delay.
Based on our 2.5wk horizon for case resolution, I expect us to see deaths continue to be announced for the next week, and then drop off as daily case increases drop off with delay.
For me the main indicator of wild community spread, is hospital cases. From our graphic above we have 227 cases in hospitals, and 79 cases in ICU's.
Based on our unresolved case number of 2723, this is 8.3% of unresolved cases in hospital, and 2.9% in ICU.
Based on our unresolved case number of 2723, this is 8.3% of unresolved cases in hospital, and 2.9% in ICU.
Both of these numbers are slightly lower than international averages, but not that far out given a few important distinctions that make Australia different.
Another graph:
Another graph:
A LOT of our cases (more than half) were from people flying home with the infection. This, from a little anecdotal summation and the graph above, biased to a younger age demographic than say, if all of our cases were from random community spread. This, again from overseas data ./
./ suggests that the higher risk rates for fatality are not present. This bears out in our age spread of deaths:
So more than half our cases were in the <50 age grouping, and so far none of those have died.
So what does this say about how accurate our known case numbers are vs the reality of actual cases?
Well we would presume in a non social distanced population the spread would match ./
So what does this say about how accurate our known case numbers are vs the reality of actual cases?
Well we would presume in a non social distanced population the spread would match ./
./ normal age demographics of Australians. This would mean a larger weighting of cases to the 30->60 age brackets.
This would then mean a higher death rate and hospitalisation rate in these age ranges.
While we dont have age breakdowns of those in hospital, we do for deaths.
This would then mean a higher death rate and hospitalisation rate in these age ranges.
While we dont have age breakdowns of those in hospital, we do for deaths.
(Again assuming no conspiracy to hide deaths)
So to play with a data point to check a hypothesis.
Deaths >80yo are 29.
Deaths 60-69yo are 7.
Total Cases for >80 ~150.
Total Cases for 60-69 are ~1000.
This is a case fatality rate of ~20% for >80, and 0.7% for 60-69.
So to play with a data point to check a hypothesis.
Deaths >80yo are 29.
Deaths 60-69yo are 7.
Total Cases for >80 ~150.
Total Cases for 60-69 are ~1000.
This is a case fatality rate of ~20% for >80, and 0.7% for 60-69.
The over 80 death rate is in line with international figures, and the 60-69 death rate is much lower than international figures.
These figures will fluctuate to some degree as case resolution date ranges expire.
These figures will fluctuate to some degree as case resolution date ranges expire.
So if we had wild community spread to a significant degree ABOVE the government numbers, we would expect deaths with SARS-CoV-2 present in their body as determined by a medical examiner (something I presume is standard at the moment for pneumonia/flu like deaths) ../
../ to be running at higher % than what is published.
For every 1000 cases in the wild not known by current testing and public health efforts should result in 10-20 deaths, and ~100 (or 200 on intl rates) hospitalisations.
For every 1000 cases in the wild not known by current testing and public health efforts should result in 10-20 deaths, and ~100 (or 200 on intl rates) hospitalisations.
This, barring a nation wide conspiracy of all of our public health system, is not occurring.
My guess at the current Federal Govt strategy is to keep current restrictions in place until we know for sure we don't have unknown wild infection spread. Then if we are "surer" ../
My guess at the current Federal Govt strategy is to keep current restrictions in place until we know for sure we don't have unknown wild infection spread. Then if we are "surer" ../
../ we can then make changes to restriction with less random variables in the mix.
But to end this on a note for you all, do you know what else reduces random variables in this incredibly complex calculation for not having mass deaths as a nation?
But to end this on a note for you all, do you know what else reduces random variables in this incredibly complex calculation for not having mass deaths as a nation?
STAYING HOME
WASHING YOUR HANDS AND GENERAL GOOD HYGIENE
NOT CHEATING THE RULES CAUSE YOU ARE TOTALLY THE CHOSEN ONE AND THEY DIDN'T MEAN **YOU** WHEN THEY MADE THESE RULES FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
WASHING YOUR HANDS AND GENERAL GOOD HYGIENE
NOT CHEATING THE RULES CAUSE YOU ARE TOTALLY THE CHOSEN ONE AND THEY DIDN'T MEAN **YOU** WHEN THEY MADE THESE RULES FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
