Read on Twitter
Let’s talk about whether the government has made serious mistakes or not. First, I want it on the record that no government has got this 100% right, no government could ever get this 100% right.
1/
1/
Let’s look back at what feels like years ago but in reality it was only 4 months, 4 months ago the virus started to spread and appear in China. These were put down as unexplained pneumonia cases, with sporadic deaths. Nothing much to put together at this point.
2/
2/
Here’s the first report of the Virus in China in the Wuhan province. You’ll note the date, this is the date that most people stated that the U.K. should have started to act. I’m not sure that makes sense, no one would act at this point.
3/ https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/
3/ https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/
The article I posted above was on New Year’s Eve. It doesn’t show any urgent need for any government to start looking at any pandemic or even think that this was a risk to their citizens. What actions would people have expected at this point?
4/
4/
Some are saying that this was the moment the government should have acted, they should have started to increase PPE stockpiles, increase our ventilators and even consider the lockdown at this stage. To me, that would have been a lucky guess.
5/
5/
That tweet was on the 14th January and still people think that we needed to act here. Against not just the best experts in the UKs advice and the WHO experts sharing the evidence from China saying that there was no H2H. Still this would have again seemed premature to most.
7/
7/
Moving on just 6 days from this and China can no longer say there is no H2H transmission as the tests started to show just how fast this was spreading across Wuhan province, the “lid was off” so to speak. Link proves this.
8/ https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/coronavirus-spreads-to-beijing-as-china-confirms-new-cases
8/ https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/coronavirus-spreads-to-beijing-as-china-confirms-new-cases
So on the 20th January we knew that the virus was rapidly spreading and was transferred from person to person. This is the first point (in my opinion) that the government could have gone a different way. They could have gone extreme from here, but they didn’t. Was that right?
9/
9/
I don’t know, would it have saved lives? Potentially from the Virus, however, unintended consequences could have cost more lives. Let me explain the logic. The experts will all agree that any lockdown should be as minimal as possible, as short as possible...
10/
10/
...and importantly, that the timing is perfect. The aim of the lockdown is to flatten the curve and as Boris said to “protect the NHS” it’s not possible (in our society) to switch off everything and “wait it out” the plan was always to minimise the peak. “Flatten the Curve”.
11/
11/
This means that while yes, people get infected, the NHS is never overwhelmed. So far this is working as very few people are defying the lockdown guidelines, had they been implemented on the 20th January, I don’t think many people would be coping with the lockdown now!
12/
12/
The gov. would be blamed for implementing a lockdown (without the backing of medical and scientific experts) too early, and that’s why people would be ignoring it. So when exactly was the lockdown started? (Again, if feels so long already). It started on the 23rd March.
13/
13/
This is just over 4 weeks after we knew that the spread of the virus was actually H2H and had entered Europe and we had, had our first reported cases. When was the first case in the UK? January 31st. Here’s a timeline for you to follow.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-timeline-health-london-singapore-italy-scotland-a9367706.html%3famp
14/
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-timeline-health-london-singapore-italy-scotland-a9367706.html%3famp
14/
The first death reported in the U.K. was on 5th March 2020. At this stage the amount of cases are low, and the experts are still saying it’s too early to implement lockdown measures as it will be hard to keep people following them, especially as it appears minor...
15/
15/
...at this stage there was a lot of people saying that this was all a ploy of the government to implement fascism etc... a lot saying that the virus is “just like the flu” so keeping those people on board during the lockdown just wouldn’t have happened!
16/
16/
Still the expert advice leading the government was not to implement any drastic measures as it was too early. (Again this feels like months ago, it was about 6 weeks). Again, it’s arguable that a lockdown at this point would have been wise, but no governments would go against...
...it’s own scientific and medical advisors. At this stage I want to remind everyone that even the SNP were onboard (they did however, stop gatherings of over 500 people). Here’s a video confirming that.
18/
18/
That video was about 2 weeks before the government started to make interventions. The first and most important was the closure of schools. This happened on the 20th March. With schools staying open for key workers to stop the pressure on the NHS from the unintended consequences!
Then we get to the complete lockdown measures made 3 days later on the Monday following. Effectively at the same time. This was when the advice changed saying it was the right time. (I’m running out of tweets so I’ll wrap this up).
20/
20/
At any point in this thread the government could have implemented a lockdown, however, it would have been attacked for doing so without the experts behind them. Then they were always going to be attacked, they can’t do right whatever and whenever they acted or did.
21/
21/
So as my Bio says, here’s the thread, it’s there to let people think, to ask when they’d have acted, why they’d have acted then and to try and justify. Rather than saying the government was wrong, say what you’d have done differently and why. Stick to the facts though!
22/
22/
I personally think they’ve got the lockdown right, I don’t think they could have done better than they have. However I’m not a closed mind. Oh, one last fact to add, that’s very important (there’s hundreds but we will work with the space we have) the date the WHO declared...
23/
23/
...this as a pandemic. That was 12 March. Just 2(ish) weeks later the U.K. is in lockdown. So, when should they have acted? What could they have done additionally? What did they get wrong? What do the critics know that the governments expert advisors didn’t?
24/
24/
My final tweet is to show just how prepared the UK is for a pandemic. In 2019 the U.K. was ranked number 2 globally, so those that say we weren’t prepared, aren’t speaking from facts. We were as prepared as we could have been!
Let’s hear some constructive criticism and feedback!
Let’s hear some constructive criticism and feedback!
A few people keep asking me what has happened to Tweet 6. To me, nothing - But clearly Twitter is either trying to help the WHO cover up their clear mistake, or there is a weird glitch, given what I have seen with Twitter in the past. I think I know which one it is!
