1/ For everyone asking: "But if we reopen now, doesn't this virus spike up again?" the answer is YES.

But it's a risk we need to manage.

We don't have a vaccine. So we are faced with the choice between managing this risk and an economic depression.

We accept many risks...
2/ ...to get growth and progress in return. Cars kill 1m people worldwide/year, 34k in the US. You are well aware of all the other risks we are willing to run in order to enjoy prosperity.

Add the coronavirus to that list of risk. Because *it's not going away*...
3/ until we have a vaccine in 1-2 years.

Recall that the shutdown was to "flatten the curve" (prevent hospital overload).

DONE! Deaths peaked on April 11 in the US (IHME model). Many states are well on the decline (see WA).

Now, it's time to get back to work, gradually...
4/...with precautions like masks and washing hands and social distancing.

You're not going to turn on a switch and pack an arena tomorrow.

But you CAN start running the economy at above -100%!
5/ I know this is blindingly obvious to many but not to all.

If you're in favor of keeping the lockdown, you need to understand that when you end it, the virus will STILL be around.

You cannot get rid of this risk. For proof, see cases in China, South Korea, Japan, etc.
6/ Ask your governor if reopening is right for you.

Better yet, lobby for it. Keep the vulnerable on quarantine. Wear masks.

Most transmission is intra-family.

Realize this is a risk you'll have to deal with. You can't quarantine forever.

The end.
You can follow @MarceloPLima.
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