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This argument presumes the facts we knew in February/March were static. What would have happened if we had a decent testing regime in place early instead of the CDC/FDA bumbling & stumbling. We find community spread a lot sooner...which would have changed our understanding. https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/1249449008625483779
The errors building up our test capacity are well documented, but let’s recall we only first found community spread in all that because some scientists in Seattle finally ignored bureaucratic orders and tested for Covid19 anyway. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
It’s not a complex scenario to figure out. We (tardily) found community spread near the end of February and by mid-March serious action was being taken. What if we find community spread 2 weeks earlier? Even a week. Every week where community spread grew created painful results.
Let’s even say for the sake of argument you reject Trump & other elected leaders (& public health officials) couldn’t have moved the country quicker with earlier knowledge. Let’s say Trump taking things seriously & being an engaged executive wouldn’t have helped in the 1st phase.
It would sure have helped us navigate the next phase better. Today our testing regime is struggling to manage the current spread, let alone be ready for widespread testing across the country to come out of stay-at-home orders. We could be Germany today. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html
Germany today is much better positioned to transition into community mitigation without such drastic self-isolation via test, trace, & isolate...let alone their success, compared to the US and most of Western Europe, in controlling the lethality of the original spread.
Or we could be Austria or Denmark, two countries who early action to control the spread leaves them in a position to the be the first to start coming out of lockdown soon. That’s infinitely better than our “who the hell knows” when we’ll be ready state. https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0412/1130075-lockdown-exit-austria-and-denmark-take-first-steps/
Could Trump and his Administration done more? Yes, in many ways. Would that have stopped the spread of coronavirus in the US? No, but it likely would have mitigated the impact of this first wave. And even if you don’t accept that, earlier action would most definitely help now.
The irony is, Trump’s slow walking of coronavirus & lack of engaged leadership of the bureaucracy means we’ll be in stay-at-home orders longer, which hurts the economy, which likely hurts his re-election. And that’s even before speculating on the potentially lower human cost.
And lest people think our testing is acceptable today, here is testing per 1 mill people in key countries:
- Norway 23k
- Switzerland 22k
- Italy 16.7k
- Austria 16k
- Germany 15.7k
- Denmark 12k
...
- US: 8.4k
We’re not testing enough. Still.
- Norway 23k
- Switzerland 22k
- Italy 16.7k
- Austria 16k
- Germany 15.7k
- Denmark 12k
...
- US: 8.4k
We’re not testing enough. Still.
Source data as this thread was typed:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
