Toby Young 'expert'. Nobody, including the Oxford team, believes this is true. Shame on The Sun for publishing this irresponsible rubbish. Shame on Toby Young for cynical misrepresentation of the science.

The casual disregard for human life in this crisis and cynical/careless treatment of evidence by some commentators has been truly shocking. (Some researchers have also not covered themselves in glory in how analysis has been publicly communicated.)

It is fascinating if you read the *actual study* how the implication of the 'model' has morphed into something completely at odds with the original purpose. People like Young have obviously not read the actual paper. It's here: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291

If we are to find a way out of this mess, we need to grow up.

I just watched back the Number 10 press conference on Thursday 9th. Whitty said no such thing (it's completely implausible given everything we know). Perhaps @toadmeister needs to clarify the source for this.

This is the press conference...

I’ve not yet found any evidence to suggest that this quote is anything other than a complete invention. That would be very serious indeed.

Mystery cleared up: Vallance (wrong speaker) was referring to the number of people who might have had the disease asymptotically not the number of people who had actually had it. Completely incompetent analysis.

Nobody serious believes 30 to 50 per cent of the world population has been infected. @toadmeister knows this but cynically misuses and misinterprets science to support his argument.

In the press conference, Vallance explicitly says "I wouldn’t expect that to be a high percentage".