Aaaaaalright fasten your goddamn seatbelts bc I’m mad as hell about this bullshit take that keeps popping up on my tl and I’ve been thinking about it for days, and there’s no better place to debunk it than right here! [THREAD] https://twitter.com/NerdPyle/status/1249373107564867584

Let’s distill the argument here: RBG, the 87yo SCOTUS Justice and the most liberal on the court, is somewhat likely to die in the next presidential term. The person elected in November will decide who fills her seat on the court.

So the argument goes, Biden would replace her with a liberal; but Trump would replace her with a conservative.

There are two major consequences of this, according to the argument.
1. The court would be majority conservative for a generation.
2. If a leftwing candidate *were* to get elected sometime in the near-ish future, their agenda would be impeded by the conservative court.

Here’s why it’s all dangerous bullshit.

To start, the argument has the foundational problem of being an admission that Biden is a terrible candidate who a) won’t beat Trump without this mysterious Berniesphere, and b) is so bad that the only argument in his favour is literally about other people.

The argument also assumes that RBG will definitely die in the next four years. This is not necessarily true, and there is no way to prove that it is.

Then there’s the question of the nomination to replace her, assuming she does die. All the available evidence says that Biden would not nominate someone as liberal as her.

Not only did Biden vote to confirm Antonin Scalia - according to @The_Law_Boy, one of the SCOTUS’ all-time pieces of shit - but he also legitimised the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings by attacking Anita Hill’s credibility when she accused Thomas of rape.

I know, I know, he didn’t vote for Thomas. But 11 Dems did, and Thomas - the court’s biggest conservative - was confirmed by a Dem-controlled senate. Wouldn’t have happened if not for Biden. Perhaps even more insulting that way.

And this is all assuming Biden would get to nominate anyone at all! The senate is not in the Dems’ favour this November, and the last time a Dem president tried to nominate a liberal, the GOP refused to even entertain the idea!

So the only way Biden would actually get a justice on the court is by nominating a conservative!!! And we all know how much he looooves working with the GOP (and segregationists)!

And now we come to those two outcomes (both total nonsense btw).

Those who believe the court will remain con-majority for a generation are forgetting that it is built incrementally. Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito aren’t old-old but they’re pretty fuckin old, and could die when Andy Cuomo or whoever tf gets elected after Trump in 2024

Justices retire or die at odd intervals. That’s the point. So the idea that it will definitively stay this way for absolute certain is nonsense.

As for the second outcome, which is immensely more offensive to the leftist movement, what people don’t seem to understand is that voting for Biden gives the Dems another blank check to keep nominating centrists and moderates.

It legitimises their machine once again. A leftist candidate would be unlikely to appear in the next 20 years at least if Biden coasts thru on Bernie votes.

Not voting for him is the only way to effectively campaign for a leftwing cause because you leave the door open for one. The SCOTUS can be reformed by a leftwing candidate. Biden doesn’t want those things, and they won’t happen if he wins.

Essentially, the argument is asking voters to bet on a lot of maybe-to-impossible things all happening: RBG dying, Biden nominating a liberal, that nom actually getting thru, Biden not losing in 2024, a leftwing candidate eventually winning soonish...

And this is all for what? To convince Bernie voters - most of whom are either young non-voters or have already gone to Trump - to vote for the “lesser” rightwing warmongering senile rapist.

Do not vote for Biden if you don’t want to. It is not a vote for Trump, nor is he better than Trump, and every liberal who screams those lies at you is only admitting Biden can’t win without a miracle.

Don’t vote Trump either tho he’s a fascist. Okay, peace. [END THREAD]