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April 12: 401 new #COVID19 cases in Ontario. Our total is now 7049.
The exponential growth model has been making bad predictions for a week.
The Flattening model doesn't work well enough for my liking.
Today's data shifted our peak two days later and 2000 cases higher.
#OnPoli https://twitter.com/realJ_Mitchell/status/1248997288921481218
The exponential growth model has been making bad predictions for a week.
The Flattening model doesn't work well enough for my liking.
Today's data shifted our peak two days later and 2000 cases higher.
#OnPoli https://twitter.com/realJ_Mitchell/status/1248997288921481218
Today I thought I'd try to predict using a different method.
Here, I extended Ontario's growth line in the Semi-Log plot outwards.
Doing that I'd predict around 7498 total cases tomorrow, an increase of 449. That seems more in line with what we are currently seeing.
Here, I extended Ontario's growth line in the Semi-Log plot outwards.
Doing that I'd predict around 7498 total cases tomorrow, an increase of 449. That seems more in line with what we are currently seeing.
Total deaths in the province stand at 258. That's again showing a slow down in the percentage increase of deaths over a seven day period.
Let's hope that trend continues.
Let's hope that trend continues.
I did a really quick and messy equation to extend the Ontario line in the semi-log plot. If you've got a more efficient way using the data I have...I'd love to see it.
Play in @desmos here: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byaxevxub2
Play in @desmos here: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byaxevxub2
Updated regression models in @desmos available here: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/htyru1rcgi
