April 12: 401 new #COVID19 cases in Ontario. Our total is now 7049.
The exponential growth model has been making bad predictions for a week.
The Flattening model doesn& #39;t work well enough for my liking.
Today& #39;s data shifted our peak two days later and 2000 cases higher.
#OnPoli https://twitter.com/realJ_Mitchell/status/1248997288921481218">https://twitter.com/realJ_Mit...

Today I thought I& #39;d try to predict using a different method.
Here, I extended Ontario& #39;s growth line in the Semi-Log plot outwards.
Doing that I& #39;d predict around 7498 total cases tomorrow, an increase of 449. That seems more in line with what we are currently seeing.

Total deaths in the province stand at 258. That& #39;s again showing a slow down in the percentage increase of deaths over a seven day period.
Let& #39;s hope that trend continues.

I did a really quick and messy equation to extend the Ontario line in the semi-log plot. If you& #39;ve got a more efficient way using the data I have...I& #39;d love to see it.
Play in @desmos here: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byaxevxub2">https://www.desmos.com/calculato...

Updated regression models in @desmos available here: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/htyru1rcgi">https://www.desmos.com/calculato...