1. Just thinking out loud here. Would welcome other thoughts...
Goldman and CS estimating ~$125 EPS on the S&P for 2019. If this is right then market at 22x. So market telling us 2020 is a write-off year and look to 2021 for proper valuation. Ok fine...

2. Seems reasonable to assume 2021 will be much stronger than 2020 but with a vaccine at least 18 months out seems highly unlikely we get back to 2019 levels in 2021. Likely some element of demand destruction (supply disruption?) exists in 2021.

3. So 2021 EPS maybe somewhere around $150-160? Nice growth from 2020 but below the $170 EPS level in ‘19. The market at 18x the midpoint of this range. Doesn’t scream cheap.

4. Another way to look at this - S&P earnings likely doesn’t get back to 2019 EPS until 2022. So market is at 16.4x ~2022 earnings? Eh.

5. Ok multiples should be high with rates so low but in a couple years with the economy on the mend and Fed perhaps in tightening mode won’t rates likely be higher?

6. Looking under the hood there is lots of carnage and much lower valuations on specific situations and probably a ton of opportunity for those names that have the balance sheet to survive this. But generally feels like slim pickings even still...

7. During times of fear no one says “look out three years the market is cheap on that basis”. The narrative usually becomes “we are fucked right now.”