Thread by @aoglasser, 1/ it’s been five days since I last posted an updated review [...]

1/ it’s been five days since I last posted an updated review of Oregon-specific #COVID19 data. There have been some big announcements in the interval about how Oregon continues to #FlattenTheCurve, so I will include that info along with updated versions of the models. https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1247561198783983616">https://twitter.com/aoglasser...

https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1247561198783983616

2/ yesterday’s update from @OHAOregon
https://twitter.com/ohaoregon/status/1249116081425395713?s=21">https://twitter.com/ohaoregon... https://twitter.com/ohaoregon/status/1249116081425395713">https://twitter.com/ohaoregon...

https://twitter.com/ohaoregon/status/1249116081425395713?s=21

3/ starting last week @OHAOregon also started releasing info via this profile tool. This graft shows positive cases (x axis is date of symptom onset)
Can we say we’ve peaked? Maybe not—I’ve seen more of a discussion about how we are in the plateau
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonHealthAuthorityCOVID-19DataDashboard/COVID-19EPIConfirmed?:display_count=y&:toolbar=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false">https://public.tableau.com/profile/o...

4/ also from the @OHAOregon profile
Number of Oregonians tested. There has been drop off in testing on the weekends, though I’m not sure why the numbers for last week look low (maybe there’s a reporting lag??)

Positive rate is currently 5%

https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonHealthAuthorityCOVID-19DataDashboard/COVID-19EPIConfirmed?:display_count=y&:toolbar=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false">https://public.tableau.com/profile/o...

5/ in the past week, @OHAOregon released a weekly report

This was published 4/7/2020, so I will keep an eye out for an update in the next few days

https://govsite-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/FWgP9MbXQSiVlxbh9eQc_COVID-19-Weekly%20Report-04-07-2020-FINAL.pdf">https://govsite-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/FWgP9MbXQ...

6/ more granular information from @OHAOregon, including demographics, hospital bed utilization, and available hospital resources

County specific data is also available online

https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19 ">https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-CO...

7/ publically available information from my employer @OHSUNews @OHSUSOM: https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/04/09/preparing-for-the-novel-coronavirus-at-ohsu">https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/04/0...

OHSU coronavirus (COVID-19) response

Last updated Friday, April 10, noon.

https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/04/09/preparing-for-the-novel-coronavirus-at-ohsu

8/ available information from other hospital systems about number of cases:
(From 2 days ago) https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-hospitalizations-at-146-in-oregon.html">https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavir...

Coronavirus hospitalizations at 146 in Oregon

The state's count is for all confirmed COVID-19 cases.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-hospitalizations-at-146-in-oregon.html

9/ who is being affected?
it appears those who are older, frailer, sicker patients
Nearly 50% of the deaths in Oregon are senior care home residents, plus (to be continued next slide) https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/25-oregon-senior-care-home-coronavirus-patients-dead-state-says.html">https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavir...

25 Oregon senior care home coronavirus patients dead, state says

The death toll accounts for half of all known deaths in the state.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/25-oregon-senior-care-home-coronavirus-patients-dead-state-says.html

10/ looking back at the data from @OHAOregon, the majority of deaths are in older patients, and data is being recorded about underlying conditions along with other risk factors

11/ broader look at trends, from
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Oregon’s">https://91-divoc.com/pages/cov... trend line overall appears to be improving
New cases confirmed per day oscillate between ~50 to 70-80 (per OHA daily updates)

So, what does this mean??

11/ broader look at trends, from https://91-divoc.com/pages/cov... trend line overall appears to be improvingNew cases confirmed per day oscillate between ~50 to 70-80 (per OHA daily updates) So, what does this mean??

12/ first, from the lay press

I used the term “plateau” versus peak earlier in this thread

Numbers are going to stay low AND HOPEFULLY MANAGEABLE!
But, it is going to take time to fight this https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-cases-plateau-in-oregon-drop-not-expected-for-six-weeks-new-estimates-show.html">https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavir...

Coronavirus cases plateau in Oregon, drop not expected for six weeks, new estimates show

New projections released Saturday by the Oregon Health Authority show the state has avoided 18,000 new cases of the highly contagious virus and as many as 500 hospitalizations since strict social...

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-cases-plateau-in-oregon-drop-not-expected-for-six-weeks-new-estimates-show.html

13/ from that article—this is the very good news about strict #PhysicalDistancing to #FlattenTheCurve

Estimated 18,000 new cases and ~500 hospitalizations AVOIDED!

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