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Hindsight is 20/20 they say, it's easy to be wise after the event. But now we have archives of what were were thinking back then, and I'm having a weird compulsion to look at news reports from a month ago to see how quickly our understanding changed.
Sadly, many of the people dying recently were exposed about a month ago (March 12). So what did we know then?
First, it's clear that "following the science" was always a bit of a porky. I bet that epidemiologists in S Korea, Italy, Germany, UK, Ireland, US, etc all had similar recommendations.
That the *actual* policies ended up being different in all these countries means that govt priorities drove the decisions, not "science".
E.g as early as Feb 28 in the US "This is going to be bad and we will need to pull the full array of [interventions]. We have a narrow window and are flying blind. Looks like Italy missed it" https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/status/1249023628819251200
"Following the science" was not the reason the US and UK didn't act early, obviously. This Yes Minister sketch was posted on Mar 10 (UK was at "stage 2" then) and was both funny and alarmingly accurate. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1237492620588470272
The Italy lockdown was on Mar 9, and shocked the public in the rest of Europe. So what kind of news were we getting in the UK then?
Mar 9: "A leading European expert in disease prevention and control says that the UK will be like Italy in just three weeks unless the government takes action in the next few days." (UK lockdown started Mar 23).
Mar 9: "Cheltenham is still on. Should sport in the UK continue as normal?" (at 10m:46s) UK govt position: "Different countries will do this in different ways" (13m:10s)
Mar 10: "Dr Harries said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be a decision supported by science" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51812326
Mar 11: "Virus cases rise rapidly in Europe and US". For context, on Mar 11, 631 deaths in IT, 6 deaths in the UK. Still a bit of an S.E.P field present?
Mar 12: "Can herd immunity protect the population?"
Mar 13: "Herd immunity: will the UK's coronavirus strategy work? Ministers in favour of a novel approach some experts are wary of" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work
In Ireland the policy was very different. On Mar 12, schools closed and events halted, including St Patrick's Day. https://www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2020/03/12/news/coronavirus-republic-of-ireland-schools-colleges-and-public-facilities-to-close-1866134/
Interesting thread on UK vs IE approach: https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249133299265658880
Mar 21: A week later. "Almost 800 more dead in Italy in 24 hours". Shocking to us in the UK. Advice from Italian MEP to UK: "protect your doctors"
