Violence in America's cities is down. Not in every case, but in most cases. That is good. But what comes next? Read on.

The #coronavirus appears to be driving violence down through social distancing and possibly via a rallying effect that increases social cohesion. That's the good news. The bad news: both of these effects are temporary.

Life will eventually return to normal. People will resume their patterns and all the triggers and risk factors for violence will reassert themselves. Violence will surely go up from current lows, but by how much?

Here is what worries me: responding to #COVID19 has exhausted public health and public safety, two sectors with crucial responsibilities when it comes to preventing and reducing violence. Community-based NGOs have been hit hard as well. Capacity has been depleted in every area.

I'm not so worried about the direct effect of the economic recession - we have good evidence that violence is not closely connected to economic cycles. What I am worried about is the secondary effect the downturn will have on the sectors just mentioned.

Without more stimulus and support, I'm concerned that when violence starts to creep up, those we usually rely upon won't be ready to step up. Look, our typical response to urban violence is far from perfect (see my book #BleedingOut), but it does have some suppressive effect.

I'm also worried about the disparate impact the virus is having on poor communities of color. What will this do to these already fragile communities? Will folks feel even more abandoned than usual? Will legal cynicism spike, leading to more violence?

Preventing urban violence also depends on being relentlessly proactive. Will our cops, service providers, and street outreach workers feel safe engaging those at the highest risk for violence? It was already a difficult, dangerous task to begin with.

All these concerns lead me to believe that our efforts to curb street violence must be redoubled, and that we must be even smarter and more empathetic than before. Overpolicing and underservicing will be even less effective than they were.

It will also be even more important to follow the science on what works. We simply won't have the resources to make expensive mistakes. In short, moving forward, the work of the evidence-informed violence reduction community will be more important than ever. Thanks for reading.