1/x Start thinking about how we are going to re-open the economy. Are you assuming that the virus is 100% gone when we do? I wouldn& #39;t. So let& #39;s say you open your restaurant & everyone wants (or is told by govt) to be six feet from each other. Your restaurant will be half full.
2/x If we& #39;re TOLD you still have to maintain six feet & you can only fill your business at 50% capacity then a smart business is only going to want to pay 50% in rent for that same amount of time. Odds are you only make 50% of revenue you used to make so you need costs to be 50%.
3/x Now, real estate owners are going to run into this problem & have to go to their banks to get some sort of discount too. Now, this is just a theory. Could be totally wrong. Let& #39;s talk Vegas. If only 10% of the people that used to come to Vegas show up...
4/x Mark my words, the bean counters at MGM/CZR will only provide a staff of people to match that new low number of guests. This explosion of people at every business that some expect is confusing to me. People don& #39;t have jobs now. Loans/rents of all kind need to be restructured.
5/x I see people complaining on both sides of the virus right now (close/open) when we should work on how we are going to open.I see a lot of people with "Z" mentality but have not worked out details "A to Y" yet. That& #39;s concerning. I very easily could be wrong about restaurants.
6/x So, if I were Red, Blue, or Purple, Open or Close, I& #39;d start working on the different ways to eventually get open & the fears/concerns of all potential customers. We will eventually get back to pre-virus. But I think the "gangbusters" group is too optimistic.
7/x It all comes back to whichever banks have deep pockets in my opinion. Those that can renegotiate terms will win. The banks that can& #39;t renegotiate probably won& #39;t get paid & wind up in Too Big To Fail 2.0 mode. We& #39;ll see. There& #39;s a lot of variables in this equation.
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