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1/x Start thinking about how we are going to re-open the economy. Are you assuming that the virus is 100% gone when we do? I wouldn't. So let's say you open your restaurant & everyone wants (or is told by govt) to be six feet from each other. Your restaurant will be half full.
2/x If we're TOLD you still have to maintain six feet & you can only fill your business at 50% capacity then a smart business is only going to want to pay 50% in rent for that same amount of time. Odds are you only make 50% of revenue you used to make so you need costs to be 50%.
3/x Now, real estate owners are going to run into this problem & have to go to their banks to get some sort of discount too. Now, this is just a theory. Could be totally wrong. Let's talk Vegas. If only 10% of the people that used to come to Vegas show up...
4/x Mark my words, the bean counters at MGM/CZR will only provide a staff of people to match that new low number of guests. This explosion of people at every business that some expect is confusing to me. People don't have jobs now. Loans/rents of all kind need to be restructured.
5/x I see people complaining on both sides of the virus right now (close/open) when we should work on how we are going to open.I see a lot of people with "Z" mentality but have not worked out details "A to Y" yet. That's concerning. I very easily could be wrong about restaurants.
6/x So, if I were Red, Blue, or Purple, Open or Close, I'd start working on the different ways to eventually get open & the fears/concerns of all potential customers. We will eventually get back to pre-virus. But I think the "gangbusters" group is too optimistic.
7/x It all comes back to whichever banks have deep pockets in my opinion. Those that can renegotiate terms will win. The banks that can't renegotiate probably won't get paid & wind up in Too Big To Fail 2.0 mode. We'll see. There's a lot of variables in this equation.
