Read on Twitter
This has proved popular, and there is truth in it.
There are also, however, a lot of correlations which are in fact utterly unproven.
Are we learning what we need to learn, or just what we *want* to learn?
1/6 https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259
There are also, however, a lot of correlations which are in fact utterly unproven.
Are we learning what we need to learn, or just what we *want* to learn?
1/6 https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259
Some of the evidence looks a little dubious.
For example, I agree that hundreds of thousands of people should not have congregated at Cheltenham, but disproportionately many of them came from Ireland. So that doesn’t explain the discrepancy in death rates at all.
2/6
For example, I agree that hundreds of thousands of people should not have congregated at Cheltenham, but disproportionately many of them came from Ireland. So that doesn’t explain the discrepancy in death rates at all.
2/6
It is also essential to look at all the evidence.
That NI’s outcomes align more with RoI’s than with England’s (and Scotland’s are somewhere in between) suggests that public social distancing policy has had limited (if any) influence on outcomes.
3/6
That NI’s outcomes align more with RoI’s than with England’s (and Scotland’s are somewhere in between) suggests that public social distancing policy has had limited (if any) influence on outcomes.
3/6
Likelier but not definite main reason for discrepancy is density of population and geographic location.
Clusters are biggest drivers of high death rates from COVID-19 and they are of course likelier in London than Dublin; in Dublin than Cork; and in Cork than, say, Ennis.
4/6
Clusters are biggest drivers of high death rates from COVID-19 and they are of course likelier in London than Dublin; in Dublin than Cork; and in Cork than, say, Ennis.
4/6
We also lack all the relevant figures and evidence, and we are in any case only in the first half of the first leg.
3 weeks ago I saw an article applauding Belgium’s early lockdown and coherent response.
Yet by midweek, it will have the highest death rate *in the world*.
5/6
3 weeks ago I saw an article applauding Belgium’s early lockdown and coherent response.
Yet by midweek, it will have the highest death rate *in the world*.
5/6
None of this is to say the UK Government isn’t led by a charlatan, or the UK political media shouldn’t be doing a vastly better job at identifying and explosing Government failings.
But, now more than ever, we each just need to remember what they say about “assumption”...
6/6
But, now more than ever, we each just need to remember what they say about “assumption”...
6/6
