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US Coronavirus Update for Saturday, April 11, 2020
~ Big improvement, or quirk of data collection?
• US deaths increase 1,813 on Saturday
fewest new deaths in 5 days
• US cases increase 26,712 on Saturday
fewest new cases in 10 days
Optimistic trend, but just one day.
~ Big improvement, or quirk of data collection?
• US deaths increase 1,813 on Saturday
fewest new deaths in 5 days
• US cases increase 26,712 on Saturday
fewest new cases in 10 days
Optimistic trend, but just one day.
2/ Now, Fatalities First, in detail, Apr 11, 2020
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Sat, Apr 11: 20,506
• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,813 (+10%)
--> 8 days in a row, rate of increase in deaths falls (with exception of Tuesday bump)
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Sat, Apr 11: 20,506
• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,813 (+10%)
--> 8 days in a row, rate of increase in deaths falls (with exception of Tuesday bump)
3/ Saturday's total new deaths is lower than Friday's.
Over the last 2 weeks, this hasn't been uncommon, day to day:
Sat, 4/11 — lower than Fri, 4/10
Wed, 4/8 — lower than Tue, 4/7
Sun, 4/5 — lower than Sat, 4/4
Thu, 4/2 — lower than Thu, 4/1
So not necessarily an indicator.
Over the last 2 weeks, this hasn't been uncommon, day to day:
Sat, 4/11 — lower than Fri, 4/10
Wed, 4/8 — lower than Tue, 4/7
Sun, 4/5 — lower than Sat, 4/4
Thu, 4/2 — lower than Thu, 4/1
So not necessarily an indicator.
4/ And one reminder on the math of infections & fatalities:
Before Sat, we had 5 days in a row of 30,000+ new cases a day.
1 week ago (4/4), 4 of the previous 5 days, rise in new cases was below 30,000/day.
Deaths lag 7 to 14 days. So likely another week of high death numbers.
Before Sat, we had 5 days in a row of 30,000+ new cases a day.
1 week ago (4/4), 4 of the previous 5 days, rise in new cases was below 30,000/day.
Deaths lag 7 to 14 days. So likely another week of high death numbers.
5/ But fewer deaths, and dramatic drop in the rate of new deaths — both welcome on Easter morning.
6/ Now, new cases:
• Total confirmed US cases, Sat, April 11: 527,111
• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 26,712 (+ 5%)
--> 1st drop in absolute number of new cases in 6 days
--> New cases fell 8,358 — largest absolute drop by far
• Total confirmed US cases, Sat, April 11: 527,111
• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 26,712 (+ 5%)
--> 1st drop in absolute number of new cases in 6 days
--> New cases fell 8,358 — largest absolute drop by far
7/ Both the number of reported deaths and the number of reported cases fell on Saturday, after several days of increases.
Percentage rate of increase for both cases and deaths had been falling steadily, but incrementally each day.
Percentage rate of increase for both cases and deaths had been falling steadily, but incrementally each day.
8/ Saturday's figures were outside the recent curve — a step down in both absolute cases and the way the rate of increase was dropping.
9/ That makes Saturday good news, but also either a slight outlier in the stats, or the beginning of a new positive phase.
One day's data — up or down — needs more days to give it context.
One day's data — up or down — needs more days to give it context.
10/ In the coming week, things will look better.
That is when patience becomes vital.
Salud for Sunday.
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That is when patience becomes vital.
Salud for Sunday.
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