This week some papers reported new suicide figs in dramatic terms. Comments from mental health world were muted, perhaps sensitive to daily toll of Covid19 deaths. To be clear, the new figs are from last 3m of 2019 & nothing to do with the pandemic. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/suicide-rate-england-record-high-figures-latest-a9454446.html

What is the right response, with so much tragedy around us? The new suicide figs are also lives lost, families distraught & it feels important to acknowledge the distress behind the data & the value of prevention. So here’s a brief summary of what @ons reported & what it means.

First, a technical point (wait, this matters). The figs cover periods of just 3m: that makes them vulnerable to random fluctuations & delays. Some are numbers, not rates adjusted for population growth. They are provisional, as conclusions should also be.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlysuicidedeathregistrationsinengland/2001to2018registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter4octtodec2019provisionaldata#main-points

The real value of the new figures is we can now see the number of suicides recorded in 2019 as a whole. The total is 5,248, a rise of around 4.5% on 2018. This is likely to give us a comparatively high annual rate when the final calculations can be done.

But the comparison is not straightforward. In 2018 the standard of proof required for suicide at inquest was lowered. That year’s suicide rate rose by 12% & the lower standard is likely to have contributed. A continuing, smaller effect in 2019 isn’t unexpected.

The 2019 rise is seen in most age/sex groups but not in 2 groups that have been priorities for prevention. One is men in their 40s & early 50s, who have the highest rate in England. The other is the under 20s whose rate has gone up most steeply in recent years.

Over 5000 deaths by suicide in a year is a tragic total, even if there are also positives in the detail. What, apart from the lower standard of proof, has caused the rise over the last 2 years? Analysis continues, though slowed by the urgent focus on #Covid19.

And what will be the effect of the pandemic itself? Those of us in #suicideprevention have been setting up ways of monitoring data, responding to people in crisis & supporting the NHS & its partners. Important to stress: a rise in rates is a risk but it is not inevitable.