Seeing lots of talk about what normalcy will look like now that most of us are several weeks into quarantine
Here& #39;s a 1921 cartoon on the "return to normalcy"
Here& #39;s a 1921 cartoon on the "return to normalcy"
Some events before and after:
1900 - gold standard begins
1913 - FED created
1914 - 1918 - WWI
1917 - tax increase
1918 - influenza pandemic
1919 - prohibition begins
"Roaring Twenties"
1920 - woman& #39;s suffrage
1921 - tax cuts
1924 - tax cuts
1929 - stock market crash
1900 - gold standard begins
1913 - FED created
1914 - 1918 - WWI
1917 - tax increase
1918 - influenza pandemic
1919 - prohibition begins
"Roaring Twenties"
1920 - woman& #39;s suffrage
1921 - tax cuts
1924 - tax cuts
1929 - stock market crash
1929 - 1939 - Great Depression
1933 - FDR 1st term - New Deal
1933 - Hitler rises to power
1933 - prohibition ends
1934 - gold standard ends/tax inc
1935 - Social Security Act
1937 - FDR 2nd term
1938 - Federal Minimum Wage enacted
1939 - 1945 - WWII
1941 - FDR 3rd term
1933 - FDR 1st term - New Deal
1933 - Hitler rises to power
1933 - prohibition ends
1934 - gold standard ends/tax inc
1935 - Social Security Act
1937 - FDR 2nd term
1938 - Federal Minimum Wage enacted
1939 - 1945 - WWII
1941 - FDR 3rd term
So ya, normal could be a ways away yet, especially because of the inequality pickle we& #39;ve put ourselves in
It& #39;s almost as if coronavirus pandemic isn& #39;t the cause of the pending recession/depression, but just a catalyst (which will amplify inequality)
I think most people Agree with that argument at this point
I think most people Agree with that argument at this point
He& #39;s what& #39;s happening on Main Street, and it& #39;s just getting started https://twitter.com/ziibiing/status/1248606174519402496">https://twitter.com/ziibiing/...
The viral @chamath interview this week put a spotlight on what needs to be done on Wall St
Let the poorly managed companies fail, don& #39;t bail them out https://youtu.be/a1vIbwawHuA ">https://youtu.be/a1vIbwawH...
Let the poorly managed companies fail, don& #39;t bail them out https://youtu.be/a1vIbwawHuA ">https://youtu.be/a1vIbwawH...
The viral @jimcramer pic also highlighted the Wall St and Main St divide
Socialize the Losses, Privatize the Gains
Socialize the Losses, Privatize the Gains
What policies come next will be the difference a "beautiful deleveraging", as @RayDalio puts it, and catastrophe https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0 ">https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIu...
It& #39;s early, but thus far, policies of the Trump administration and action by the FED hasn& #39;t inspired much confidence that this recession won& #39;t evolve into a full-blown depression
Interestingly though, many policies deemed impossible or too expensive just months ago, are being deployed/enacted by gov/corps
- inc min wage
- UBI
- Paid sick leave
- Healthcare4all
- student loan forgiveness
- releasing non-violent criminals
- paper ballots
- housing homeless
- inc min wage
- UBI
- Paid sick leave
- Healthcare4all
- student loan forgiveness
- releasing non-violent criminals
- paper ballots
- housing homeless
https://twitter.com/LibertyBlitz/status/1099407738440806410?s=20">https://twitter.com/LibertyBl...
And let& #39;s take a look at student loan debt...
Mortgage foreclosure rates had been falling dramatically since & #39;08, but will probably rise again through 2020+
So from my POV what will an economic normal look like?
- infrastructure program ala WPA
- inc tax on the 1%
- let Wall St/big biz fail
- end Corp Welfare
- close inequality gap
Based on history, WWIII is not an impossibility, should economic policies fail globally
- infrastructure program ala WPA
- inc tax on the 1%
- let Wall St/big biz fail
- end Corp Welfare
- close inequality gap
Based on history, WWIII is not an impossibility, should economic policies fail globally
Factors that ended The Great Depression appear to still be hotly debated today:
Gov Expansion via New Deal?
WWII?
Monetary Expansion?
Gov Contraction via tax cuts?
Here is some reading on the subject
https://www.nber.org/papers/w3829.pdf
https://www.nber.org/papers/w3... href=" https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_12_02_02_steindl.pdf
https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/t... href=" https://fee.org/articles/what-ended-the-great-depression/">https://fee.org/articles/...
Gov Expansion via New Deal?
WWII?
Monetary Expansion?
Gov Contraction via tax cuts?
Here is some reading on the subject
https://www.nber.org/papers/w3829.pdf
https://www.nber.org/papers/w3... href=" https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_12_02_02_steindl.pdf
https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/t... href=" https://fee.org/articles/what-ended-the-great-depression/">https://fee.org/articles/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/how-hitler-and-fdr-actually-ended-the-great-depression/2011/08/12/gIQAf3YXNJ_blog.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezr... href=" https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/business/economy/from-world-war-ii-economic-lessons-for-today.html?scp=2&sq=christina%20romer&st=cse
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/1... href=" https://www.hillsdale.edu/educational-outreach/free-market-forum/2006-archive/what-got/
https://www.hillsdale.edu/education... href=" https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304024604575173632046893848">https://www.wsj.com/articles/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezr... href=" https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/business/economy/from-world-war-ii-economic-lessons-for-today.html?scp=2&sq=christina%20romer&st=cse
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/1... href=" https://www.hillsdale.edu/educational-outreach/free-market-forum/2006-archive/what-got/
https://www.hillsdale.edu/education... href=" https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304024604575173632046893848">https://www.wsj.com/articles/...