It seems to me that expert opinion is coalescing around two broad pre-vaccine options (with nuances/tweaks etc... ).

1. A reversion to the original UK plan to shield vulnerable while operating higher NHS capacity to manage the disease and let others work/see friends etc...

2. An aggressive (and fairly illberal) programme of testing/tracing/quarantine to manage the disease while allowing for some degree of normality around work + small gatherings.

Interestingly (+ crudely generalising) epidemiologists seem to prefer 1 and public health experts 2.

As I am not an expert I don't know what the best path is but from a purely political perspective I suspect it would be hard to get public consent for the "pure" version of either strategy.

I.e. I don't think most people will support a strategy that looks like "let people catch it in a managed way" or one that looks like "we'll lock your family away for a fortnight if you've been in a meeting with someone with the virus".

So my guess is we'll end up with a mixed strategy that takes the most palatable elements of both strategies (some test/trace; some shielding etc) plus a few added extras like mask wearing. How well that would work I have no idea.

(I should add that under any pre-vaccine strategy further lockdowns would be required if the health service came under too much strain).