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Concerning the matter of "re-opening" the country, it's interesting to watch the different approaches in Germany v the USA. In the USA, the debate appears to be quite binary: Reopen, yes or no? (As evidenced by the tweet below, which argues against this standard approach). 1/ https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1249122106626932737
In Germany, meanwhile, practically no-one argues for going all in. It's all about which parts of society should go back on line: Schools, for example, would be desirable for many reasons -- but then, that would be good environment for spread. Etc. etc. 2/
It seems to me the latter approach is wiser. For one, if you must add fuel to the fire, you don't want to add all the fuel at once, do you? Less metaphorically, if the aim is to not overload the hospital system, you want to increase the load slowly. 3/
Also, with such an approach, you get at least some idea of the effects of specific policies: For example, re-open schools, wait four weeks, see what has happened. 4/
Of course, for estimating effects, it would be even better to use a randomization procedure to decide which change does what when. But that's not going to happen. 5/5
