The single most pertinent criticism of the S2F model I've read. If you accept that:
1) Bitcoin's supply is immutably capped at 21m
2) Everyone knows this and has made investment decisions based off of it

Then under an EMH assumption all halvings should already be priced in https://twitter.com/FangTrades/status/1230296806225043456

That doesn't mean that the S2F narrative itself won't impact the price, nor that the EMH isn't bullshit. Ultimately, the price of Bitcoin will be influenced by many factors.

Good thread and discussion here: https://twitter.com/hugohanoi/status/1249255190185697280?s=19