For months, there has been argument about testing data globally (it's not consistent) and this is also an issue with deaths data too. Some like France and Belgium include non-hospital deaths (eg care homes). Others do not, which again undermines efforts to determine best practise

So with that caveat, plus the caveat that weekend deaths can get pushed into next week, we still suspect the #UK will see peak daily #coronavirus deaths around 10-12 April at around 900-1,050, and not at over 1,600 deaths on 17 April as IHME suggests.

On the testing data, one way to cross-check is to look at neighbouring countries. Among Nigeria's neighbours, Cameroon has 20 times more cases per capita, Niger has 13 times more cases and Benin has twice as many. Best case is that closed borders (months ago) have helped

Testing has been a big issue in the US too. They are catching up. All US states recorded at least a 40% rise in cases this week and some a three-fold increase. The unweighted state average of positive tests is 13% (vs less than 1% in Kenya) suggesting many more to come

Re what the UK records as a coronavirus death - and on why Ireland has so many more active cases (Korea style testing has begun) - see this excellent thread on Ireland vs UK https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249151869747896320?s=21 https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249151869747896320