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(1/) An update of analysis of Dr. Raoult’s #hydroxychloroquine #azithromycin trial on 1061 patients.
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/pre-prints-ihu/
(warning:">https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/pre-print... it’ more like conspiracy theory)
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/pre-prints-ihu/
(warning:">https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/pre-print... it’ more like conspiracy theory)
(2/) Actually the preprints have two versions.
“Version 2”
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Table-1-v-2-GB.pdf
Final">https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-conten... version
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Table_final_website_IHU_09_04_2020.pdf
There& #39;re">https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-conten... minor changes in the final version compared to v2. Most are Ct values and HCQ serum concentrations. Other baseline characteristics are the same.
“Version 2”
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Table-1-v-2-GB.pdf
Final">https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-conten... version
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Table_final_website_IHU_09_04_2020.pdf
There& #39;re">https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-conten... minor changes in the final version compared to v2. Most are Ct values and HCQ serum concentrations. Other baseline characteristics are the same.
(3/) Another difference is the way that NEWS scores were presented.
Version 2. Mean-Sd-median-range.
Final version. Low-medium-high brackets.
Version 2. Mean-Sd-median-range.
Final version. Low-medium-high brackets.
(4/) If we believe the “version 2” data is real, we can estimate the breakdown of each NEWS group based on mean, sd, median, range, number of low/medium/high.
This is what I got.
This is what I got.
(5/) The actual numbers may be different, but it should be a generally good estimation, given so many constraints (mean, sd, median, range, num of low/medium/high).
Note: total statistics are slightly off because “5 patients belong to both poor clinical & viral outcome groups”.
Note: total statistics are slightly off because “5 patients belong to both poor clinical & viral outcome groups”.
(6/) This highlights that most patients had *VERY LOW* NEWS score upon admission.
VERY LOW means NEWS score = 0
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤣" title="Rolling on the floor laughing" aria-label="Emoji: Rolling on the floor laughing">
Based on https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7042184/,">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... NEWS = 0 means everything LOOKS normal & age < 65.
VERY LOW means NEWS score = 0
Based on https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7042184/,">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... NEWS = 0 means everything LOOKS normal & age < 65.
Based on https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... NEWS = 0 means everything LOOKS normal & age < 65." title="(6/) This highlights that most patients had *VERY LOW* NEWS score upon admission. VERY LOW means NEWS score = 0https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤣" title="Rolling on the floor laughing" aria-label="Emoji: Rolling on the floor laughing">Based on https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... NEWS = 0 means everything LOOKS normal & age < 65." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
(7/) this indicates ~ 80% patients are <65y & NO fever & NO short breath when admitted. Although the severity is (slightly) greater than the previous 80-pts cohort (only 15% fever), it is still significantly lower than the global stats.
80% NEWS = 0, what’s their symptoms?
80% NEWS = 0, what’s their symptoms?
(8/) what if this estimation is much off?
No way, because in order to achieve
948 low &
14 medium &
11 high &
mean = 0.4 in the good outcome group,
they will need *AT LEAST* 663 patients (62%) with NEWS = 0.
In fact, this number is ~800-ish from many simulations.
No way, because in order to achieve
948 low &
14 medium &
11 high &
mean = 0.4 in the good outcome group,
they will need *AT LEAST* 663 patients (62%) with NEWS = 0.
In fact, this number is ~800-ish from many simulations.
(9/) I am interested in how Raoult& #39;s team will compare this to a "control" group to demonstrate the combination actually works.
Is there such a control group on the earth (with <20% fever)?
Is there such a control group on the earth (with <20% fever)?
(10/) conclusion
If one still believe there is no bias & no selection in this trial, take it.
otherwise, pls trust the RCTs by entities with greater level of responsibility and data integrity. RCT may not leads to magic cure, it doesn& #39;t fool you.
the end.
If one still believe there is no bias & no selection in this trial, take it.
otherwise, pls trust the RCTs by entities with greater level of responsibility and data integrity. RCT may not leads to magic cure, it doesn& #39;t fool you.
the end.
one good thing that Raoult confirmed is that,
there might be NO horrible synthetic lethality between #hydroxychloroqune and #metformin. This combination could lead to ~30% fatality in mice model.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.018556v1
(if">https://www.biorxiv.org/content/1... not all 5 death is from metformin comedication group).
there might be NO horrible synthetic lethality between #hydroxychloroqune and #metformin. This combination could lead to ~30% fatality in mice model.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.018556v1
(if">https://www.biorxiv.org/content/1... not all 5 death is from metformin comedication group).
