Thread by @artemon, Does the post-peak IHME model seem too optimistic to anyone else? http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-yorkWhen [...]

Artem Petakov

artemon

Does the post-peak IHME model seem too optimistic to anyone else? http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

When">https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st... I look at countries like Italy and Spain, none of them just neatly go down after peak like IHME predicts.

I predict it will take longer and go down slower.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

I think it will take longer, because with the exception of Wuhan, the full social distancing is not perfect -- there is violators, travel, etc. This is especially true once things get a little bit better -- people will want to be out & about.

Just found this thread elaborating on flaws of IHME model. Scary. https://twitter.com/mpmselenic/status/1249096180501483520?s=20">https://twitter.com/mpmseleni...

https://twitter.com/mpmselenic/status/1249096180501483520?s=20

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