Yesterdays Covid Data

Let me tell you how I see it

MACRO view - We are FINE

A)Growth of new cases has levelled of. We are doubling 6days+. If we reach 10 we are safe

B)South/East are safe. North is "ok"

C)West is a concern esp Maharashtra. Cases in Guj /Raj spiking not good

In Cities
a) NCR is good (Less cases in Gurgaon/Noida. Delhi 70% is single source)
b) Same with Chennai & Hyd
c) Bangalore EXCELLENT
d) Kolkatta will reserve judgement
e) MUMBAI is a real worry. The spike in death rates (8%) especially is not good

The actual death rates for people showing symptoms is normally at 2-3% globally (I am not counting asymptotic)
Thus 8% Death rates, means the actual number of cases is probably 4X more in Mumbai
Also we are hearing reports of people just landing up dead at hospitals

The fear is tht of a big undiscovered layer esp in the slums

The good news is Mumbai is doing Contact Tracing &cluster containment very aggressively

They are going doortodoor &testing even people w/out symptoms

But Mumbai is space to be watched&testing has to be ramped up here

Other BIG factor is the HUGE pickup in recovered
186 people recovered yesterday
151 day before
Thats 20% of new cases!

Why is it SO SIGNIFICANT?
Covid path is 3-4 weeks
Recovery now means Patient got COVID BEFORE shutdown
Hopefully spike in Mumbai deaths is due to same reason