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There is no way we are fully opening on April 30th.
Why?
Because numerous models show huge risk of mortality if we open up that soon.
The most used is the University of Toronto model, done by Dr. David Fisman.
Why?
Because numerous models show huge risk of mortality if we open up that soon.
The most used is the University of Toronto model, done by Dr. David Fisman.
It predicts that if restrictions are lifted on April 30, that 41.1m would become infected by late Oct, with 4.9 million infected at the peak in mid-July. An estimated 334,500 people would die.
This assumes extensive physical distancing.
This assumes extensive physical distancing.
In order to break the cycle, aggressive physical distancing would need to be in place for 45 days starting April 5 (so, until May 20).
I find that unlikely, but that is what the model suggests.
I find that unlikely, but that is what the model suggests.
In this scenario, the model projects that 15.7m by Oct. Estimated 140k would die. After the peak in April, the number of new cases would decline and stabilize this summer.
Now, I don't find any of this very likely. I think some states are going to open, come hell or high water, by May 1. That is probably a mistake, but they are going to have to judge based on their own risk/benefit.
If it were me...I would stay shut at least until May 15.
If it were me...I would stay shut at least until May 15.