Thread by @aaronAcarr, New Zealand, South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Singapore, HK, Japan, Norway, [...]

New Zealand, South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, Singapore, HK, Japan, Norway, Canada, + CA have a combined population of nearly 500m people, but 1,900 fewer COVID deaths than NYC. Density isn't the problem. Failing to plan, prepare, and act early/aggressively is.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_City

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California

“Density isn’t a factor?”

No, density is *a* factor. It's just not *the* factor. South Korea, Singapore, etc. are among the most densely populated places on planet earth, yet they have low death counts.

"Don't race and socioeconomic factors matter?"

Unequivocally! https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-exposing-our-racial-divides/609526/

What the Racial Data Show

The pandemic seems to be hitting people of color the hardest.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-exposing-our-racial-divides/609526/

In the immediate, however, the city, state, and the federal government could have prepared, planned, and acted early. Their failure to do so was *very* consequential.

Read about that here https://twitter.com/aaronAcarr/status/1248328898024218632?s=20

https://twitter.com/aaronAcarr/status/1248328898024218632?s=20

"Ok, but how consequential?"

According to Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department, *extremely* consequential.

"But New York has an expansive transit system"

South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, etc. have among the best transit systems in the world and all have low COVID-19 death counts.

"New York City residents don't have cars"

Actually, approximately 50% of NYC households own cars. The borough with the lowest car ownership rate (and highest population density), Manhattan, also appears to have the lowest COVID-19 case rate.

“Why post this amidst a pandemic?”

Because the density of our city (aka the heart of our city) is under attack. It’s vital to understand the root cause of our inordinately high death rate, so NYC/America can learn from this experience and improve, just like Asia did after SARS.

Which is why they're doing so (relatively) well now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/how-the-us-can-defeat-coronavirus-heed-asias-lessons-from-epidemics-past/2020/03/18/9aa7916a-67a5-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

How the U.S. can defeat coronavirus: Heed Asia’s lessons from past epidemics

Aggressive testing, contact tracing and stringent quarantine measures helped officials in East Asia control their coronavirus outbreaks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/how-the-us-can-defeat-coronavirus-heed-asias-lessons-from-epidemics-past/2020/03/18/9aa7916a-67a5-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

“I heard that Singapore’s case rate has been increasing.”

Yes, and it’s not alone. However, despite being in close proximity to China and one of the first places to get hit with COVID-19, it *still* has only 8 deaths, which is remarkable.

Even if Singapore's death toll were to rise into the dozens or even the hundreds, it speaks to their level of preparedness, preparation, and early action.

Learn about their success here. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/26/how-singapore-and-south-korea-deal-with-coronavirus-quarantine-measures/#4cbc2bf31921

How Singapore And South Korea Deal With Coronavirus Quarantine Measures

Singapore is open for business. But good luck traveling there. South Korea found a close knit cluster, and tested like mad.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/26/how-singapore-and-south-korea-deal-with-coronavirus-quarantine-measures/#4cbc2bf31921

"Only authoritarian places can control COVID-19"

That's not true. South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Norway, etc etc are full-fledged democracies, and they all have low death rates.

"Why is Germany included? Don't they have a high case rate?"

Yes. Germany screwed up in the beginning by failing to take aggressive action. Then they corrected course, began testing and tracing aggressively, and now enjoy a relatively low fatality rate.

"You can't draw lessons from Asia, it's a different culture"

So? Testing/tracking isn't culture, it's science! Germany incorporated South Korea's testing model and, as a result, has a significantly lower fatality rate than most places in the west. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low

The pandemic has hit Germany hard, with more than 100,000 people infected. But the percentage of fatal cases has been remarkably low compared to those in many neighboring countries.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html

"But doesn't America's broken healthcare system have something to do with it?"

Oh, absafuckinglutely! Tens of millions of uninsured and underinsured people amidst a global pandemic is *literally* fatal. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/16/21173766/coronavirus-covid-19-us-cases-health-care-system

Coronavirus is exposing all of the weaknesses in the US health system

High health care costs and low medical capacity made the US uniquely vulnerable to the coronavirus.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/16/21173766/coronavirus-covid-19-us-cases-health-care-system

And not just for ppl who lack proper insurance, but for everyone! Our society! Our country! The world! This is what the GOP doesn't understand.

Not to infringe upon anyone's negativity, but I think universal healthcare is not a matter of if, but when https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-universal-health-care/

41% of Public More Likely to Support Universal Health Care Amid Pandemic

With Americans entering crisis mode over the coronavirus — self-isolating, rationing medicine and scrambling for clarity on the cost of testing and treatment — for some people, the pandemic is doing...

https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-universal-health-care/

"NYC has a high fatality rate because it's an international hub"

Hong Kong (4 COVID deaths), Singapore (8 deaths), and Thailand (35 deaths) are also international hubs.

Being an international hub matters, but not as much as planning, preparation, and early + aggressive action.

*THIS* matters more than density

*TESTING* matters more than density

Learn about Cuomo’s missteps here: https://theweek.com/articles/905612/washington-gov-jay-inslee-what-real-coronavirus-leadership-looks-like

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is what real coronavirus leadership looks like

Stop slobbering over Andrew Cuomo already

https://theweek.com/articles/905612/washington-gov-jay-inslee-what-real-coronavirus-leadership-looks-like

Learn about de Blasio’s missteps here: https://gothamist.com/news/missteps-mayor-bill-de-blasios-coronavirus-response

The Missteps Of Mayor Bill De Blasio's Coronavirus Response

At the center of the epicenter is Mayor de Blasio, who has repeatedly delivered half-measures and confusing information to New Yorkers and has been late to take action in areas that could have helped...

https://gothamist.com/news/missteps-mayor-bill-de-blasios-coronavirus-response

Learn about Trump’s missteps (especially with regards to testing, which is f-ing vital) here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/14/21177509/coronavirus-trump-covid-19-pandemic-response

The Trump administration’s botched coronavirus response was years in the making

From insufficient testing to a lack of coordination, Trump’s Covid-19 response has been a disaster years in the making.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/14/21177509/coronavirus-trump-covid-19-pandemic-response

Singapore: eight COVID-19 deaths

Seoul, South Korea: two COVID-19 deaths

Tokyo, Japan: 40 COVID deaths

(Note: this # may increase significantly in the coming weeks — Japan dropped the ball on testing, but is still in *much* better shape than NYC/US)

Berlin, Germany: 46 COVID deaths

(After a slow start, Germany, drawing on lessons from South Korea, has implemented one of most aggressive testing/tracing programs in Europe)

Testing — in conjunction with Germany’s world-class healthcare system — has allowed doctors to put patients on ventilators *before* the point of deterioration. One of many reasons for Germany’s low fatality rate.