Buchanan writes that the entire Trump presidency hangs on decision to reopen the economy. Trump says it’s the biggest decision he’s ever had to make.

What do you do when you have to make an existential decision under conditions of enormous uncertainty?

Try to derisk it. 1/

2/ How do you do that? Make the choice less binary.

For example:
— define red / yellow / green zones as @balajis has suggested.
— red zones stay under SIP until exponentiality is controlled.
— yellow zones allow low-risk groups out but they have to wear masks. ...

3/ In yellow, high-risk populations stay under SIP. Super-spreader locations (bars, dine-in restaurants, movie theaters) stay closed.
— green zones can loosen further but have to enforce their borders to make it work.
— same-day test & trace is the precondition to everything.

4/ If the decision is conceived as a single binary choice to reopen, the plan will not be sophisticated enough to succeed. We will be cycling in and out of lockdowns as @naval has predicted.

5/ Binary decisions create polarized outcomes. Iterative decisions create intermediate and improving outcomes.

The decision needs to be reconceived.

Less binary and more iterative FTW.