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This week for Barron's, I looked at the plans to get things back to normal. The bottom line: With a lot of hard work, restrictions could begin to be loosened in some places by the summer. But normal is a long way off. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-coronavirus-lockdowns-may-soon-be-eased-grim-scenarios-await-51586558270?mod=hp_LEAD_4
The lockdown is having dire consequences. More than 10% of American workers have lost their jobs over the past three weeks. Opening the gates and telling everyone to go about their business is one option. One paper suggests that would kill two million Americans by the fall.
There are a handful of plans from think tanks and academics that offer alternatives. But the relief they offer is partial, and won't come easily.
They suggest continuing the lockdown for a month or so - one plan says until late May, another until late June.
They suggest continuing the lockdown for a month or so - one plan says until late May, another until late June.
Afterwards, they say states can begin lifting restrictions on a state-by-state basis after certain conditions are met. Those conditions are not trivial: Few new infections, tests for anyone with symptoms, and the ability to trace the contacts of anyone who tests positive.
Contact tracing, for one, is hard. Local public health authorities have limited capabilities to do it now. One plan suggests an app that would track your movements and report them to health authorities if you get sick - something like what Google and Apple announced yesterday.
Testing could be a hurdle, too. You wouldn't just need enough to test people with symptoms, but also to to random tests to find asymptomatic carriers. Antibody testing, though much-touted, likely isn't the answer yet.
One of the plans suggests we have the diagnostic testing capacity already. Another says we're short by a factor of ten, at the very least.
Let's stay states start to meet those criteria. What happens then? According to the plans, some people could go back to work, with masks on. But people over 60 would still be advised to continue limiting contact. Large gatherings would still be banned.
One plan suggests monitoring public places for people with high temperatures, and tracking everyone who enters a public transit system so other riders can be warned if they later get sick.
All that, and states would need to shut back down if untraceable cases turn back up.
All that, and states would need to shut back down if untraceable cases turn back up.
The restrictions would only end when enough people have been given a vaccine. It's no use guessing when that would be, but don't expect it for a year or more.
Here's the whole story. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-coronavirus-lockdowns-may-soon-be-eased-grim-scenarios-await-51586558270?mod=hp_LEAD_4
One thing I'll add: I wrote that the slowing of the rate of new Covid-19 hospitalizations in New York appeared to be a hopeful sign this week. But I'd suggest reading this thread, which calls the usefulness of that data into question. https://twitter.com/thisismeredith/status/1248657528562606081
