My twitter and podcast stream are filled with hot economic takes but few actionable ideas.

So, if you had to build a buy-and-hold portfolio (of assets or strategies) for the next 12 months, what would you do?

ALSO: THIS IS OBVIOUSLY NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

I’m 100% systematic, but have fun thinking about discretionary trades.

Given outlook uncertainty, it feels like a portfolio today should be comprised of convex trades to both the upside and downside.

On the upside, my ideas from two weeks ago were (1) trend on high yield and (2) mortgage REITs.

Not sure if that former one has been blown up by last week’s Fed action...

I think a combo of trend equity (which is pretty bearish now) + bull call spread (with upper strike priced around where we’d expect trends to turn back on) could be interesting.

Probably something that would need to be adjusted though.

Not sure if any CEFs are trading at a discount right now, but that’s always an interesting angle.