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I wrote this because I'm fascinated by the emerging immune v not-immune-to- #COVID19 social divide. But many readers are expressing skepticism about the premise, that people who recover from infection with the new virus are likely immune to it for a time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/coronavirus-survivors.html https://twitter.com/MickiMaynard/status/1248966010113269761
So here's is some of what I learned in my reporting about that, and welcome others who are actually experts to correct or join in. First of all, here's a great explainer by my colleague @apoorva_nyc, which I linked to in my story. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html
Re: virus mutating, yes viruses do mutate to avoid immune system defenses, which is one reason I note that no one knows how long immunity will last. But fwiw @trvrb who is tracking new strains suggests here it'll take years, not months, for this virus. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628564324761606
Other readers ask why they should believe people who have recovered are immune even to the existing strains. Here's a great thread from @TheMenacheryLab on why the new coronavirus is not likely to "defy the normal rules of immunity.'' https://twitter.com/TheMenacheryLab/status/1246865058468114437
One reader asks: "Don't we need some survivors to volunteer to be reinfected in order to prove their immunity?" Here's the study I linked to in which monkeys infected with the new coronavirus produced neutralizing antibodies and resisted re-infection. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1
And here's a thread from @jbloom_lab on a study of a different human common-cold coronavirus in which human volunteers were infected, developed antibodies, and, after being re-infected a year later, only 1 in group of 8 showed cold symptoms. https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1246547876525658112
Some readers cite the recent study from Shanghai researchers, summarized here, which found ~30% of patients failed to develop potent antibodies after Covid-19 infection. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
Immunologists I talked to said it's possible that test was not sensitive enough to detect the antibodies and/or, a different type of immune response, from T-cells, took care of it for them - doesn't mean they're not immune.
But, back to the actual theme of my story, one thought it was possible that there may be three categories in the 'immunity divide.'' i) those who haven’t had COVID ii) those who have and are likely immune and iii) those who have but are not immune, for reasons so far unknown.
It's worth saying that many former Covid-19 patients I talked to face stigma from people who knew they were sick. Yet the health officials they talk to (and who I talked to) call them the "safest people in the country.''
Obviously it's important to be super-cautious about any behavior that could possibly spread the disease. But also important to look at the evidence for immunity in the immediate aftermath of a viral infection.
Right now, as @christykarras says in my story, “It’s like it’s up to us to figure out how to be.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/coronavirus-survivors.html
