I keep seeing posts about millennials waiting for real estate prices to fall. I think that's unlikely to happen in Jamaica simply because our demand far exceeds supply. 1/n

The last time real estate was "cheap" was the mass exodus in the 80s coupled with the recent (10 years) completion of major housing projects. Including the development of most of Portmore. Finsac in the 90s created a downturn as well, but not for broad market IIRC 2/n

In the 2009 recession, local Ponzi schemes actually drove real estate demand. Even after their crash, prices didn't really dip. The devaluation of our dollar is probably why. So prices stagnated and in truth dipped but the $ value was not reduced. 3/n

Jamaica has always had an aging population, coupled with overseas citizens returning home there are many people living longer that are not moving! These homes may be inherited later on but let's categorise them as illiquid. 4/n

So here come the millennials with their student loans, low tier jobs and this insatiable demand to own their own home (mostly because of cultural and economic trauma). They can't afford homes in metropolitan areas and new communities being built have significant travel costs 5/n

Competition is strong? You want a house, yeah but so does Mr. Developer who wants to make use of new density laws and build a complex on that property. Who has better strength of cash? 6/n

Oh the new apartments that Mr. Developer built are expensive - they're being sold thanks to banks making mortgages one of the easiest (ha! I know) forms of debt to access. Plus boomers want grandkids and have been assisting with deposits to provide "room for growth" 7/n

What about that older apartment? The one that needs heavy repairs with strata issues? Yeah might be able to afford it, but really there's not much appreciation to be had. It might actually be a loss after a 25 year mortgage and maintenance costs. 8/n

Here comes CorooonaaViruuusss (cardi voice). Yes! Demand will dip, markets are crashing! People bruck! I've been saving for 10 years, this is my chance! Sorry, probably not. Many (majority?) millennials are still living at home with their parents trying to buy 9/n

To make things worse. Approval for financing to developers and buyers will probably be reduced. Which will further increase demand for properties - cash buyers will get some deals but that's a subset of overall buyers. 10/n

Until we have much more development in urban areas, prices will most likely maintain. Best bet is to co-build with peers like this: http://www.collectivecustombuild.org/ 

Cutting out the developer from the process and reducing cost 11/n

Alternatively. Suggest down sizing to family members who are senior citizens - it can be a great boost of liquidity for them and will help NEPA's mission of reducing Urban sprawl. The more residential units available, the sooner prices will fall. Supply and demand balance. 12/n

Finally, prices are mostly supported by financial institutions. Buy some shares, go to AGMs and ask bank execs what they're doing to support millennial financial inclusion. Write op-eds. Let your voice be heard! Decline credit cards! 13/13

Oh, bonus. Don't be afraid to just rent! Invest your cash otherwise and live life. If you grew up in NYC you would probably never dream of owning your own place. Real estate ownership isn't everything, you can invest in other asset classes. Achieve your own personal goals!