NEW: Can Keir Starmer win a majority for Labour? Short answer: yes, but he needs to improve his ratings among the key voters Labour needs to win. https://medium.com/@dylan.spielman22/can-keir-starmer-win-a-majority-for-labour-1432503c17da?sk=27821d08c41dba1bf11ec2be98a37e80

Labour needs 124 seats for a majority, so the voters it needs to gain are those who live in the 124 seats it is closest to winning in. Within these, it is voters who were open to voting Labour in 2019, but ultimately didn’t. 1/10

This group of “target Labour considerers” is roughly a fifth of voters in these 124 target seats, enough to win every one if Labour swings most of them. Winning their equivalent group in 2019 was critical for the Conservatives’ majority. 2/10

Target Labour considerers have no single dominant demographic. They mirror the population on age, education, gender, ethnicity, and tenure and voted 55% leave, 45% remain. Labour needs to gain support across demographic divisions to win. 3/10

The key to doing this is competent leadership. Perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn were critical in pushing target Labour considerers to ultimately not vote Labour. 4/10

Keir Starmer’s ratings among target Labour considerers so far are not enough. They rate him exactly neutral on a like/dislike scale, better than Corbyn 2019, but almost identical to Corbyn 2017. But 57% are yet to make up their mind. 5/10

Ipsos MORI’s polling archive suggests that Starmer’s first months will be crucial. Every opposition leader who failed to become Prime Minister had a negative rating after their first year, while just Blair was strongly positive at +27. 6/10

Policy competence not policy position is key. The division between Labour considerers who voted Labour and those who didn’t wasn’t Leave/Remain, but between those who thought a potential Labour government would handle Brexit well or badly. 7/10

Target Labour considerers are closer to Labour than the Conservatives on economics, unlike on cultural values, so if the economy rises in importance due to coronavirus disruption and Brexit fading it should benefit Labour. 8/10

However, Labour has a big credibility problem on the economy. 58% of marginal Labour considerers thought that the economy would get worse if there were a Labour government, and only 15% said it would get better. 9/10

So: If Starmer establishes himself as the no-nonsense, competent, constructive leader, and convinces the public that Labour can deliver on its promises, he may well be the next Labour Prime Minister. 10/10

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